Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Farmland Boom (and Brewing Bubble) Continues as Midwest Land Jumps 25% Year over Year, Led by Nebraska's 40%

We've been highlighting the opportunity in farmland for the past 3+ years.  I've called it the best 'long term' investment I can see.  That said, the move in the past few years, and especially this year has been astounding and feeling 'bubble-licious'.  In Nebraska, farmland has risen 40% year over year according to the latest data... in Iowa 31% - that doesn't make much sense, aside from he fact so much easy money has been created and it's starved for a home. The Midwest region as a whole is up 25% year over year, which is actually an acceleration over levels seen last we heard in May.  Like all good Fed induced bubbles, this one will end badly - let's look for the typical signs.... in this case a Ferrari dealership opening in Omaha should be a good one.

Via AP:
  • The average value of farmland in several Midwest and Western states soared 25 percent over last year in the third quarter.
  • Nebraska farmland values increased the most with a roughly 40 percent jump over 2010.
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Mo., said Tuesday that bumper crops and strong farm income in northern Plains states, like Nebraska, helped the region overcome drought and flooding.
  • The Federal Reserve says this new survey of 243 banks showed the largest annual increase in land values since the survey started in 1994.
  • The 10th Federal Reserve District covers Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Colorado, northern New Mexico and western Missouri.

Full survey here.


And it's not just the Kansas City Fed district - even the Chicago district has seen its best appreciation since 1977.
  • According to the Chicago Fed, farmland values in its district had their largest increase since 1977, jumping 7% from the previous quarter.  Iowa farmland prices led the Chicago Fed's district, jumping 31% from last year's 3rd quarter.

[May 16, 2011: U.S. Plains States Farmland Boom Continues, With 20% Year over Year Gains]
[Mar 11, 2011: [Video] Former FDIC Head Bill Isaac Talks about the Dud that is Dodd-Frank, and the Potential for a Farmland Bubble]
[Mar 7, 2011: NYT - In Prices of Farmland, Echoes of Another Boom]
[Feb 16, 2011: WSJ - Midwest Farmland Surges Double Digits in Q4 2010 Alone]
[Nov 15, 2010: Farm Economy Headed for Record]
[Dec 31, 2009: Bloomberg - Ethopian Farmers Lure Investor Funds as Workers Live in Poverty]
[Jun 2, 2009: The Economist - Outsourcing's 3rd Wave - Buying Farmland Abroad]
[Jun 14, 2008: Bloomberg: Farmland Reaps Bonanza for TIAA]
[Jun 5, 2008: NYTimes: Food is Gold, So Billions Invested in Farming]

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