Wednesday, October 5, 2011

September ADP Employment Comes in at 91K vs 75K Expectation

This report is not moving markets much - a slight positive bias since the data came out, but we'll mention in anyhow.  The data for September actually matched the previous month (91K in each), before August was revised down a tad to 89K.  Expectations were for 75K.  Full report here.  ADP shows bulk of hiring in small businesses, while large businesses actually retrenched.

Keep in mind this figure does not include the striking Verizon workers, which hurt last month's official government report by 45K, and will help Friday's report by 45K.

Of course the relationship between ADP and official government data is not linear - last month the government reported zero jobs versus the 91K (at the time) from ADP.

I don't usually mention the Challenger layoffs report (I don't know the exact term but it signals large scale cuts) but this morning it was also reported at levels not seen since 2009.  It appears the U.S. Army and Bank of America accounted for about 2/3rds of the announced mass layoffs.
  • Employers announced 115,730 planned job cuts last month, more than double August's total of 51,114, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.  The figure was the highest since April 2009 when 132,590 layoffs were announced.
  • The 50,000 military cuts were the result of drawing down forces in two wars and cost-cutting efforts in all areas of the federal government. September's cuts followed an announced 17,500 reduction in August.
Here is a quick video on the Challenger report.


As for the market, we're back to that very important 1120 line on the S&P 500. Thus far indications are for an open above that level, as Europe is repeating what the U.S. did in the closing 30 or so minutes yesterday.

By 9:59 AM the ADP report will be long forgotten as we look towards ISM Non Manufacturing.

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