Thursday, August 25, 2011

Oversold Condition Worked Off

As I wrote yesterday, the higher we go ahead of this Jackson Hole nonsense the more risk in the market.  Futures were a bit lower this morning until the Buffet noise, and then we rocketed up some 10 SPY, and opened gap up.  Late in the day I wrote

With 1175ish cleared, I'd be looking for a move to the 20 day moving average for tomorrow if all of Pavlov dogs who buy anytime Bernanke offers gifts arrive with bells on.

Now my reason was wrong (Buffet instead of Bernanke) but we essentially went to the 20 day moving average or within sniffing distance (2 pts) on this morning's gap. 

Germany seems to be weakening quite dramatically today (-2.5%), so unless Buffet wants to start buying stakes in German banks we will eventually once more focus on Europe - which has been ignored completely this week.

This still remains bear market action - the most vicious of rallies usually occur within downtrends.  Let's also keep an eye on gold early next week - the gold ETF still has not breached the 50 day moving average for all the hoopla around the current action.

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