Thursday, July 7, 2011

Getting Feverish

Again - astounding change in market psychology in just a week and a half.  This is yet another V shape bounce and we now have to consider if this is the new market behavior.  With HFT trading and momo actors dominating the market, it seems once we take off in 1 direction there is really no relent.  V shape has been almost the only shape since early 2009...

As a few people have noted in comments, the saying used to be a stairway up, and elevator down in markets.  But the past few few years it is elevator up action as well.

That said, we're getting to overbought conditions and any sort of gap up tomorrow morning into the labor report would present a juicy opportunity for a (very) short term pullback.   The S&P 500 is up some 85 points in a week and a half (nearly 7%), and stands 3.2% over the 20 day moving average.  That's usually a level the rubber band tends to snap back.  Hence a gap up tomorrow morning of 0.5%+ish would be prone for selling into/shorting.  Plus we have yearly highs at 1370.

A lot of individual names (we all know the symbols of these 20-25 stocks by now) are well into overbought but you just cant stand in front of momo trains once everyone piles into because overbought is simply a state of mind once the lemmings are unleashed.

A premarket selloff on tomorrow's employment data would be more tricky in the near term.

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