Friday, July 29, 2011

First Pass Q2 GDP a Stinker at 1.3% - Q1 GDP Bombed Down to 0.4%

Expectations were low for this number (1.8%), but the U.S. came in below at a paltry 1.3%.

More devastating was Q1 GDP somehow got revised down to 0.4% from 1.9%!!  I can't recall such a downward revision in recent memory; usually you will see a 0.2% or 0.4% adjustment but 1.5%?

Also reinforces the whole Wall Street game of reacting to economic numbers as a joke.  When your data is that far off, why bother even publishing it.

Based on this apparent margin of error, today's "1.3%" for Q2 could be a negative number for all we know when the final revision comes out in a few months.

And for those crying for more QE?  What did $600B buy you?  Nothing... in fact it hurt most of Main Street by helping to drive up commodity costs and imposing a 'tax' on the majority who don't have mega assets on Wall Street.

The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). (I'll say!!) The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 26, 2011.

Full report here.  I won't bother to post the details because frankly we could have an entirely different number down the road.

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