Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Back at the 50 Day Moving Average but Not Sure it Matters

Without such a dependence on the political news cycle, I'd be more prone to care about technicals at this moment, but with a certain spike to occur in the averages once the debt ceiling deal hits I am not so sure if these moving averages are going to matter.

Drawing the pictiure back farther we appear to be forming a head and shoulders formation with mid February and "now" being the 2 shoulders and early May the head.  The only problem with that, is the last time we saw this bearish formation, the market slapped bears all over the place by doing the exact opposite of what used to occur after such an occurence.

Aside from political theater, next week is going to be a ball of fun with the global manufacturing gauges (already we saw a flash PMI in China that is contractionary), the U.S employment report, and ISMs.  So there will be a lot of macro economic news dominating over micro in the next week and a half.

It does remain fascinating how America's businesses (especially the larger public ones) can continue to well, while the economy for Main Street continues to remain in recession for many.   People are starting to 'get it' - by it I'm describing the multi year structural issues underlying the economy that have been impacting for well over a decade (but hidden by Fed induced bubbles) - as evidenced by news stories that are finally saying "aha"!  More on that later today.

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