Thursday, April 7, 2011

10 Day Moving Average Rule Hits as S&P 500 Goes through 6th Day of Consolidation

The market continues to show tremendous resiliency and an inability to pull back.  This is the 6th day of a tight trading range, and that has allowed the 10 day (exponential) moving average to catch up to the freight train that has been the market.  Outside of exogenous global events, the S&P 500 has essentially held the 10 to 13 day moving average range the entire rally.

Speaking of exogenous events, it is remarkable how global bailouts are now taken in stride.  Nearly a year ago the Greece sovereign crisis led to a worldwide selloff - some of the heaviest selling since the rally began in March 2009.  Then in November 2010, we had a more modest selloff of about 6-7% due to the Irish sovereign debt crisis.

The current Portugal sovereign debt crisis, in which a formal request to be bailed out was announced in the past 24 hours?  Who cares!  Business as usual in the bailout nation globe.   Of course part of this has to do with the ESFS (a sort of TARP for European countries), but the market has become numb to things that would be unthinkable just 3 years ago.

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