Monday, September 20, 2010

S&P 500 Clears Multi Month Resistance on.... Poor Housing Sentiment?

Showing how often we misframe market moves in terms of news, the S&P 500 seems to surge shortly after the 10 AM release of homebuilder sentiment.   Often we ascribe the moves in markets to XYZ news but when you look back at most days it is more accurate to frame the news based on how the market acted that day.  To that end:

  • Homebuilders confidence in the housing market stayed this month at the lowest level in 18 months, and more worry that the traffic of potential buyers is falling.  The National Association of Home Builders says its monthly index of builders' sentiment in September was unchanged at 13. The index has now been at the lowest level since March 2009 for two straight months.  Readings below 50 indicate negative sentiment about the market.

And the market surges...

The reality is whatever caused the push through 1132ish set off the very predictable short covering and algorithmic long buying (as well as some humans).  This move has almost seemed set in stone as of last week when the market would simply not sell off; now we have the more interesting leg of the story.  Now that something EVERYONE was waiting for has happened are we going to go against the grain and just continue up?  How far does it go before we get our first real selloff in 4 weeks?  And what will the trigger be?  Or will September be the first month (ever?) where there is only one down day (in excess of the -0.1% type of cheapie down day)


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