Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Range Bound

The market without memory from day to day returns. Each day is being news driven and yesterday's events are forgotten. Spain anyone? Not a factor. Today we have a pending home sales report that is brightening the mood - the highest level since October they say. Wow. So home sales are rising in spring as they do every year for decades on end? Let me go buy some stock. This year is going to be especially interesting since there was clearly a spurt in April due to the end of the taxbuyer home credit so while I still expect the normal seasonality to hit in the coming months it might be less than usual. Outside of that Friday's job report seems to be the main driver and perhaps a catalyst to get us moving out of this range.

As for the indexes, yesterday I noted midday breadth was poor for a day that was near flat - all the action was concentrated in the same old tired daytrader (institutional or otherwise) names. Today is 180 degrees opposite: breadth is excellent as student body left has decided to buy almost anything that moves. As I noted in the weekly summary the action at end of days has been wicked - yesterday was yet another day with a swoon in the closing moments. For all we know today we rally 1% in the closing 20 minutes... it's not whether we go up or down, it is the vicious action that is troubling. Those type of moves just speak to me of big vacuums in the market and can snap your head off with the ferocity of the moves in such short time spans.

Overall I see a range of S&P 1070 to 1094... we exited out of that range momentarily but this is has been the main area and we are simply ping ponging back and forth. 1094 was the low of the day after flash crash and it still seems to be holding importance, just yesterday that was the spot we were stopped dead on. There remains little to do here other than to daytrade and chase algorithms. Buying intermediate term positions continues to be a losers game so we're waiting. A break over S&P 1101 (200 day) or below 1040 (yearly lows) is what every trader is waiting on. Until then we remain in this white noise area. But in the bigger picture the chart above is quite bearish as we are below the 200 day moving average and some of the shorter term moving average (the 20 day) look poised to cross down below in the next week or so. So bulls need to make a charge sooner rather than later. The 50 day moving average is now trending down rather than flat or upward (bearish) and the 200 day threatens to do the same in a few weeks time.


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