Thursday, June 3, 2010

Bookkeeping: Stopped Out of Ross Stores (ROST) Short

Yesterday's late day melt up caused our short in Ross Stores (ROST) to be stopped out in the $53.80s. Cost basis was $52.60s, so about a 2% loss.

Based on technicals I still think it was a great set up as the stock was stuck under its 50 day moving average and a shorter term (20 day) moving average had just crossed below a longer term (50 day) moving average, but all TA gives you is a framework and increased probabilities of success. In this case, none of the above mattered as student body left decided Wednesday to rush into anything that has 1 to 4 letters in its stock symbol. Just as it had done the opposite Tuesday.

Actually it is emblematic of the situation with the market as a whole. Tuesday you have a late day selloff and close at the lows, which in no way should lead to good things the next day. But HAL9000 has no memory from day to day and the complete opposite of what history has taught us happens Wednesday. So both Tuesday and Wednesday this week we had a nice 25+ S&P point range. Volatility remains intense and the day to day action quite random. Now we try an assault on the 200 day moving average again with Obama already promising us a "strong jobs" figure. (Will the politicians admit the hundreds of thousands of census jobs when they crow about the data Friday? hah)

No position


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