Friday, June 11, 2010

As Long as S&P 1070 Holds Don't Expect Much Damage

S&P 1070 aka Dow 10,000 remains the level.  To repeat (like a broken record) we have 2 ranges: (a) 1040 to 1070 and (b) 1070 to the 200 day moving average, roughly 1100.  I continue to read nothing into any movement in this 60 point range unlike many others.  It's simply white noise from this perch. As long as 1070 holds we should remain in this 30 point range and ping pong back and forth.  Remember, the market no longer has a day to day memory, so this news will be forgotten by Monday. (EDIT 10:15 AM - Retails sales data forgotten by 10:15 AM, not by Monday)

With this morning's selloff all we've done is moved to the lower end of the top range.  If 1070 were to break later today, which I would paint as unlikely then we are talking about the lower range.  But until a breakout over the 200 day moving average or a breakdown below 1040 occurs this is all just fodder for quants and daytraders, and it means nothing to the intermediate term.  Unfortunately, I was hoping for a move up today to see trading near the 200 day moving average, to have some of my limit short positions lock in - but that now appears highly unlikely.

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