Friday, May 21, 2010

Bookkeeping: Beginning to Hedge Long

As I wrote yesterday I'd be interested in buying in the S&P 1060s. What I see today was a break of the flash crash lows of S&P 1066, and obviously incredibly oversold conditions. What I'd like to see from here is a bounce back north through S&P 1066.

Also we have "seasonality" if you will on our side (tongue in cheek) - the next trading session is a Monday which almost is a no lose proposition anymore. I've bought some TNA ETF here (6% exposure) around 1061-1063 and I'll add if the conditions above play out. Either way I am comfortable beginning to purchase in the low to mid 1060s than I was at any levels of the past month - at least for a trade. Upside could potentially go to the 200 day moving average or 40ish S&P points higher.

It is far too cumbersome to buy a portfolio of 20+ names at a time like this so I'll just be playing with index positions (mostly) for now. If a real reversal that lasts for more than 23 minutes seems to be afoot I'll also get into the call buying game, but for now just the ETF.

EDIT: If the S&P 500 breaks to new lows of the day i.e. below S&P 1057ish or so, I'll cut this position back and look to try again in the 1040s.

EDIT 9:52: So far so good, I'll be adding more TNA ETF along with June SPY 108 calls for a trade. Initial target is yesterday's resistance of 1094. The calls will be stopped out on any move below 1066.

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