Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Another Reversal; Back Out of Index Stuff

I don't see any particular reason for this selloff, but it just might be complete fatigue in people's index fingers from clicking "buy" for weeks on end.  Based on the complacency people might be slumped over in slumber and their forehead hit the sell button in error.  The market is up basically straight since that Thursday selloff 2 weeks ago, and the Russell 2000 is up 19 of 21 sessions; effectively a month straight.  1 of those "red bars" is a 0.1%ish loss... so really 1 down day in a month.

Might be just another head fake like yesterday, but instead of waiting for 1140 to break, I am going to sell my index positions now and see what happens next.  Gave up some very saucy intraday gains in the span of 1148 to 1142.  I was hoping for 2 more points to begin selling but it looks like everyone in the world was also looking to do the same.  The problem right here is everyone knows 1150 is supposed to be huge resistance so there is only 8-9 S&P points up and to say we are overbought is an understatement.  Some of the charts I am seeing in individual stocks now look akin to 1999.  I am just waiting for them to announce a new website so they can rally 23% in an afternoon, internet bubble style.

Whenever this move truly reverses, and I don't mean a 1-3% correction - but something real - there is going to be some serious pain as there are gaps everywhere and huge gulfs (15-20%+) with no support as many stocks have gone vertical.  But it is amazing we cannot even fall 2%.

Waiting and watching for now, buying the intraday breakouts was working with no sweat up until yesterday; now it's become more troublesome.

EDIT 1:05 PM: In the interest of not beginning to do stupid things, I won't be adding any index longs unless the S&P 500 breaks over 1153.  I can see myself beginning to chase my own tail here the past few sessions, so I am going to put discipline on myself and not chase after 5 S&P points out of greed, and trying to catch every single trade.  Marathon...not a sprint.

Disclaimer: The opinions listed on this blog are for educational purpose only. You should do your own research before making any decisions.
This blog, its affiliates, partners or authors are not responsible or liable for any misstatements and/or losses you might sustain from the content provided.

Copyright @2012