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Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Sea World, Busch Gardens Now in the Hands of Private Equity as Blackstone Group (BX) Swoops In

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Fresh off the heels of a magnificent $3 million (ah memories of Tyco's Kozlowski anyone?) birthday bash in 2007....

Some 500 guests toasted Schwarzman on his 60th birthday, hailing him for reeling in the world's biggest buyout just four days earlier: the $39 billion deal involving commercial-building empire Equity Office Group. Those who came enjoyed a $1 million private concert by Rod Stewart, free-flowing wine and nonstop courses of gourmet feasting in a party said to top $3 million.


....one of the country's top oligarchs, Steve Schwarzman, has bought Sea World and Busch Gardens so his children have their own personal theme parks. Ok, ok - I exaggerate... we're not at that point yet; that is a headline more for say 2030 per the current trendline we are on. While Schwarzman's company, Blackstone Group (BX) is buying the company, it is not just for his self pleasure. Indeed, we know the game plan from here [Private Equity's Game Plan Revealed! More at 11.]: chop a lot of costs (read - people), load the company up with debt to pay for acquisition fees and a multitude of management fees, and you should see the (much more profitable without all those nasty employee costs) theme park IPO circa 2011.

And who will be pumping the 2011 theme park IPO as an "awesome opportunity"? (aside from Jim Cramer) Probably many of the exact same names slathering themselves in fees for the takeover today; it's a whose who of our financial lords.
  • Blackstone will finance the acquisition via senior secured credit facilities and debt provided by Bank of America's Merrill Lynch, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd.
Thankfully the peasantry still get to have their games (the theme parks!) to keep distracted.

As for the adults in the room.... You take this asset from me, I'll take this asset from you, the investment banks will charge the fees for moving assets from 1 to the other, we'll load the company with debt to pay for our management skills and pay for the transaction costs.... and then we'll unload it to someone else or the public in a few years. We all win here; all we need is more easy money from our Fed. Get to it Ben!

Via AP
  • Anheuser-Busch InBev said Wednesday it will sell its theme parks, including the three SeaWorlds and two Busch Gardens across the U.S., to private equity firm Blackstone Group for at least $2.3 billion.
  • It is considered the second-largest entertainment park operator in the U.S. after Walt Disney Co. and has about 25 million visitors a year and 25,000 employees.
  • Carlos Brito, the brewer's CEO, said in a statement that the business performs well but is not a core focus for Anheuser-Busch InBev.
  • It's not clear how much the business is worth. According to Anheuser-Busch InBev's annual report from 2008, the entertainment unit had pro-forma revenue of 932 million euros, or about $1.37 billion (it's really irrelevant in the big picture of the financiers - the fees are the thing, making purchases at sensible prices are just negligible details)
  • Busch Entertainment will maintain its headquarters in Orlando, Florida, and for now, the Busch name, Atchison said. (I kind of like Schwarzman Gardens myself)
It's nice to be on the side that always wins, even if its only with a few thousand shares. I can almost feel Ben Bernanke begging me to take his cheap money via osmosis of owning these BX stock certificates.

Long Blackstone Group in fund; no personal position

Bookkeeping: Cutting Back Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) and RF Micro Devices (RFMD) Further

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Amazing - these 2 companies both preannounced (I & II) in the past month upside to consensus for their quarters and while trash stocks are rushing to the moon, these names are getting hammered. Wonders never cease. I'll admit to being flabbergasted here.

We said Monday there were a few names that we were slapping yellow caution on [Portfolio Positions with Yellow Caution Tags Attached] These 2 were the most at risk - since then both RF Micro Devices (RFMD) and Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) have simply rallied into resistance, but then stalled/faltered. We need to see that change to offer more of our capital to these stocks.

I have to respect the price action and these are the type of set ups I like to go short, not long. Since I like the fundamentals (which mean nothing) I am not going to short here, but just sell down the positions further in both until the market changes its mind. Which in this case means buying back into our positions at higher prices. I sold both positions down by about 40% today. I'll be more comfortable with prospects for each at RFMD > $5.20 and SWKS > $12.75.


Long RF Micro Devices, Skyworks Solutions in fund; no personal position

Dylan Ratigan: America Being Subjected to "Corporate Communism"

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I think someone's been reading my blog ;)

Ok I've been using the term "corporate socialism" to describe the US "free market capitalism" [not] system for a long time, but if you want to turn it even more inflammatory I suppose communism in lieu of socialism works even better. Here is a 5 minute video/interview from Dylan Ratigan (formerly of CNBC, now MSNBC) spouting the truth. (in my opinoin) Even though many don't want to admit it.

Hmmm.... first we popularized Kool Aid in financial circles in 2007
Then we brought Corporate Socialism to the conscience
Can it be long before we begin hearing "Reverse Robin Hood" (take from the many to give to the few!) spouted in the mainstream?? ;) Need to get over to that trademark office...





If you prefer the written word, Dylan expands in a piece on ZeroHedge

As Americans, I believe we reject Communism because it historically has allowed a tiny group of people to consolidate complete control over national resources (including people), in the process stifling competition, freedom and choice. It leaves its citizens stagnating under the perpetual broken systems with no natural motivation to innovate, improve services or reduce costs.

And yet today we find ourselves as a country in two distinctly different categories: those who are forced to compete tooth and nail each day to provide value to society in return for income for ourselves and our families and those who would instead use our lawmaking apparatus to help themselves to our tax money and/or to protect themselves from true competition.

Unfortunately, they use our wealth and laws not only to benefit their outdated, failed companies, but also spend a small pittance of their ill-gotten gains lobbying and favor-trading with politicians so the government will continue to protect them from competition and their well-deserved failure.

Even with all that -- the only changes that have been made, have been made to prop up and hide the massive flaws on behalf of those who perpetuated them. Still utterly nothing has been done to disclose the flaws in this system, improve it or rebuild it.

Bookkeeping: Taking Profits on Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) - Again

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Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) is becoming one of my favorite stocks this year - buying each dip has been very lucrative. Unlike many names it actually pulls back relatively sharply and then bounces, which is perfect for the way we trade around a core position in a stock. After an upgrade in late September by Goldman, we have another upgrade today (from Goldman again?!)- pushing the stock up over 9%. I am going to sell 60% of the position at $17.75 and we'll keep trying to continue this pattern - buy the dips, sell the rips. Even here, it is *still* cheap - hope it doesn't run away on us.
  • A move away from timeshare business and an ongoing shift toward a fee-for-service structure prompted a Goldman Sachs analyst to upgrade Wyndham Worldwide Corp. Wednesday.
  • Analyst Steven Kent said in a client note that he recently met with Wydham's management and determined that they are concentrating on selling off existing timeshare inventory and managing the sale of timeshares, condos and apartments as timeshare weeks without taking on more capital exposure.
  • "Over the next several quarters we expect Wyndham to continue to push itself towards becoming a fee-for-service company while in the meantime, generating significant cash flow as it moderates its timeshare development activities," he wrote.
  • Kent raised his rating on the Parsippany, N.J.-based company to "Buy" from "Neutral" and increased his share price target to $26 from $18.
This is good news - the timeshare business has dragged their multiple down versus peers.

We bought 600 shares on 10/2 at $15.55 so employing last in, first out accounting effectively we just punted those shares for a 14% gain in about a week. We'll try to get these shares back at $16.50 or lower in the coming weeks. The stock has broken out of a long base today so there is certainly a chance it will just keep running from here - never know.

Hotels as the new paradigm? Who knew.

[Sep 29, 2009: Wyndham Worldwide and Sector Upgraded by Goldman Sachs]
[Jul 29, 2009: Wyndham Worldwide Solid: RevPAR Far Above Industry]
[May 1, 2009: Bookkeeping - Creating New Position in Wyndham Worldwide]
[May 1, 2009: A Stroll Through the Hotel Space]

Long Wyndham Worldwide in fund; no personal position


Mosaic (MOS), Monsanto (MON) Earnings - Have the Sellers Been Exhausted?

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Agriculture is one of my favorite "long term" themes as a crowded planet modernizes - but the recession has certainly hit the names in the sector more than I thought; I thought these would be a bit more recession proof. In the first few days of the week, 2 under achievers of late - Mosaic (MOS) in fertilizer and Monsanto (MON) in seeds/herbicide have reported and despite disappointing numbers have not been hammered. In fact Mosaic rallied after its report Monday evening but then again as we noted - by midday yesterday almost every stock was up. At some point all the bad news will be in these stocks, but it is unclear if that point is now. The fact this sector has NOT participated in the "kill the dollar, buy any commodity related stock on earth" is also troubling - the only commodity sector somewhat similar is natural gas and even there its more about the raw commodity that has stunk; not the individual corporations whose stocks have STILL been run up even as the commodity languishes.

First, with Mosaic they reported yet another poor quarter but as they have done the past 3 quarters in a row they promise things will improve a quarter or two out. Considering they've been wrong for nearly a year, it is hard to believe their forecasting skills now - but yes, at some point things will be rebounding in their sector as farmers worldwide rebound.
  • Mosaic Co., which makes plant nutrient potash and fertilizer, said Monday its fiscal first-quarter profit fell nearly 92 percent, hurt by lower market selling prices for its some of its products.
  • Revenue dropped 66 percent to $1.46 billion from $4.32 billion
  • Earnings for the three months ended Aug. 31 slid to $100.6 million, or 23 cents per share, from $1.18 billion, or $2.65 per share.
  • Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, on average, had predicted a higher profit of 35 cents on revenue of $1.54 billion.
  • Sales of phosphate fell 69 percent and sales of potash dropped 66 percent.
  • Additionally, the average price for phosphate fell 73 percent and the average potash price dropped 22 percent.
  • The company cited "significant" declines in selling prices for phosphate and potash, as well as reduced potash sales volume compared with a year ago. The decline in potash sales volume and selling prices comes as customers pull back on purchases amid volatile grain and oilseed prices.
  • Phosphate sales volumes in the first quarter were about even with a year ago.
These comments are not very different then what was said 1 quarter ago, 2 quarters ago, or 3 quarters ago - just change the time stamp.
  • Jim Prokopanko, Mosaic's President and Chief Executive Officer: "Phosphate fundamentals have improved. The potash market is evolving and we expect strong demand in calendar year 2010 for both nutrients.. Our long-term outlook for crop nutrients remains positive and we continue to execute our strategic plans designed to drive strong cash flow and shareholder value."
  • "We believe farmers will increase application rates in response to high 2010 new crop prices and the need to replenish the large amount of nutrients withdrawn by the record crop this year," Chief Executive Officer Jim Prokopanko said in a statement.
  • "Gross margin has improved from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 and we look for further modest improvement in fiscal 2010."
These type of companies run very levered models so when times are good it really flows to the bottom line... and vice versa.
  • Mosaic said it isn't providing financial guidance on potash sales volumes until market conditions normalize.
Thus far all I see with Mosaic is a company that "filled a gap" perfectly and is now rallying into resistance potentially setting up another short opportunity. A move back over $52 would be constructive and a move over $56 would be bullish. In this market there are very few stocks below all 3 moving averages (20, 50, and 200) - I screen for that often, and for liquid stocks (decent volume) over $300M its been in the 70 to 90 range - so Mosaic is in an (ahem) select group.


As for Monsanto there was little surprise in the report as they company just preannounced early last month [Sep 10: Monsanto Offers Disappointing Guidance for 2010] - herbicides continues to be a thorn in their side as they transition to a focus on seeds.
  • Leading chemicals and biotech seed developer Monsanto Co (MON) reported a higher fourth-quarter loss on Wednesday, though results slightly beat Wall Street estimates, as a downturn in its herbicide business ate into revenues.
  • The company warned last month that results would be hard hit by a slide in its Roundup herbicide business tied to tough competition from China, and a global glut of glyphosate, the key ingredient in Roundup.
  • Monsanto reported a net loss of $233 million for the fourth quarter, compared with a loss of $172 million in the same period last year. The company reported a loss per share of 43 cents on an as-reported basis, compared to a loss of 31 cents a share a year ago. On an ongoing basis, the company reported earnings per share of 2 cents, compared to a loss of 3 cents a share a year earlier.
  • The results slightly beat estimates as analysts were looking for quarterly earnings on an ongoing basis of 1 cent a share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
  • Company officials said Wednesday that net sales for the year hit a record $11.7 billion because of growth in global corn seed and genetic traits revenue, as well as increased soybean seed and traits revenue in the United States.
  • The company also said it was seeing revenue growth in its cotton seed and traits business in India and Australia.
  • Profits from seeds and genetic traits overall made up more than 65 percent of total company gross profit in 2009, up 17 percent over fiscal year 2008.
  • Monsanto will push overall seed pricing up 8-10 percent in 2010, Monsanto chairman Hugh Grant said. He also said the company will introduce at least one new product every year for the next seven years.
  • Analysts said the Roundup downturn was well known and Wednesday's results held no surprises. "While the super spike they saw in Roundup was nice while it lasted, it is going to make for some nasty comparisons going forward," said Morningstar analyst Ben Johnson. "The seeds business is really the long-term growth driver as a whole."
Guidance
  • The company affirmed its full-year ongoing 2010 earnings guidance in the range of $3.10 to $3.30. Monsanto's full-year 2010 EPS guidance on an as-reported basis ranges from $2.85 to $3.11.
Chart wise - all the same issues as Mosaic.

No positions

Where's the Next Bubble... err, Boom? Maybe 'Cleantech'

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Judging by the reaction to recent IPO A123 Systems (AONE) [Sep 24: A123 Systems - Hype or Hope?] there certainly can be a case made that 'cleantech' has a chance to be one of the bubbles the Federal Reserve creates next. I am not so sure in terms of job creation (solar is now dominated by China, wind we are way behind and there only be so many "battery" companies in the world) but certainly in stock hype.

Via AP
  • Our economy sure could use the Next Big Thing. Something on the scale of railroads, automobiles or the Internet -- the kind of breakthrough that emerges every so often and builds industries, generates jobs and mints fortunes.
  • Silicon Valley investors are pointing to something called cleantech -- alternative energy, more efficient power distribution and new ways to store electricity, all with minimal impact to the environment -- as a candidate for the next boom.
  • And while no two booms are exactly alike, some hallmarks are already showing up. Despite last fall's financial meltdown, public and private investments are pouring in, fueling startups and reinvigorating established companies. The political and social climates are favorable. If it takes off, cleantech could seep into every part of the economy and our lives.
  • A year into the Great Recession, innovation isn't slowing. This time, it's better batteries, more efficient solar cells, smarter appliances and electric cars, not to mention all the infrastructure needed to support the new ways energy will be generated and the new ways we'll be using it.
Key point on why it's more likely a stock bubble than a job bubble - we just don't like making things that aren't heavy (cars, defense, perhaps a stray wind mill)
  • Yet for all the benefits that might be spawned by cleantech breakthroughs, no one knows how many jobs might be created -- or how many old jobs might be cannibalized. It also remains to be seen whether Americans will clamor for any of its products.
  • Clean energy projects could simply replace old jobs and functions, like meter-readers. And there's no guarantee new jobs won't shift to countries with cheaper labor. (all you need to do is make them government jobs and then they'll be protected for a few more centuries - boo yah)
  • The laser, for instance, was a big innovation, but it wasn't clear at first what it could be used for. That's why there wasn't an economic boom in the 1960s from the advent of lasers, even though they ended up driving everything from medical devices to CD players for four decades.
But not to worry, we are promised 5M jobs are on the way - sort of like the 3-4M jobs that would be "created or saved" as long as we gave up $800 billion of our grand children's money via stimulus.
  • The Obama administration is pledging to invest $150 billion over the next decade on energy technology and says that could create 5 million jobs.
How does it compare to the interbubble? Not yet even close at least in the VC world
  • And cleantech is on track to be the dominant force in venture capital investments over the next few years, supplanting biotechnology and software. Venture capitalists have poured $8.7 billion into energy-related startups in the U.S. since 2006.
  • That pales in comparison with the dot-com boom, when venture cash sometimes topped $10 billion in a single quarter.
Which can mean only one answer - our only answer to all our problems. To the printing presses Ben!
  • A123 Systems, a Watertown, Mass., maker of lithium-ion batteries for electric cars, had one of the most lucrative public stock offerings this year, raising $437.5 million. Its stock price jumped more than 50 percent on the first day of trading in September, with investors willing to overlook that the company has yet to make money.
Now this next part is actually viable and is something that could be exported the (developed) world over if we innovate and take the lead. But will "privacy concerns" kill this in America ? ("I don't want big brother to know if my fridge is at 48 degrees or 43 degrees!")
  • One target is "smart grids." As utilities install digital meters in homes and Americans buy appliances that can communicate with the electric system, individual power consumption can be monitored more closely. People could be cued to dial down appliances such as refrigerators and air conditioners when electricity is in highest demand. Such fine-tuning in millions of homes can reduce the need for new power plants.
  • It's not just startups getting in the game. General Electric Co. plans to string transmission lines to deliver solar or wind power. Hewlett-Packard Co. is adapting techniques for printer cartridge chips so digital sensors can send data to smart grids.
  • The government's push for these developments parallels the expansion of railroads in the 19th century, when the government granted blocks of land to companies laying track, says Jack Brown, an associate professor in the University of Virginia's Department of Science, Technology and Society.
  • One difference, Brown points out, is that clean energy is such a vast field that government could make the wrong choice in backing one type of technology over another.

The Onion : More American Workers Outsourcing Own Jobs Overseas (Video)

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Sometimes there is so much truth in humor....


More American Workers Outsourcing Own Jobs Overseas

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Private Equity Skewered in New York Times

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Quite a comprehensive piece in this weekend's New York Times on the world of private equity - using as a proxy the story of Simmons Bedding Company. This is a great topic and something that speaks to our system - the heads we win, tails we win culture in the upper echelons of finance (and one could argue the entire corporate system) and the costs that are born. I have seen locally for years many cases of private equity's "work" in the auto industry, and the most infamous example is the disastrous foray by Cerberus into Chrysler. But there are a litany of smaller examples both in manufacturing and outside of it. One piece that really woke me up on how the game works was a BusinessWeek article in 2006 on Burger King [BusinessWeek - April 10: Where's the Beef?]; I wrote about this piece about a year ago [Nov 8, 2008: NYT - Debt Linked to Buyouts Tighten the Economic Vise]


...the main story I want to focus on is private equity which were about 18 months ago the new golden children - masters of the universe; the best, the brightest, the new power brokers in our era of cheap credit and looking the other way while they load the companies they buy in debt while running off with huge paydays. So for their self interest they are effectively bogging down company after company and threatening the jobs of many in this country. The fallout will be even more apparent in the current credit situation.

I still to this day, on principle alone, won't buy Burger King (BKC) stock based on this story I read in BusinessWeek a few years ago [BusinessWeek - April 10: Where's the Beef?] I'm not the only one [Nov 19: Cramer Goes off on Private Equity] The irony is the IPO of Blackstone (BX) effectively put in the "top" in private equity.

Private equity firms embarked on one of the biggest spending sprees in corporate history for nearly three years, using borrowed money to gobble up huge swaths of industries and some of the biggest names — Neiman Marcus, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer and Toys “R” Us.

The new owners then saddled the companies with the billions of dollars of debt used to buy them. But now many of the loans and bonds sold to finance the deals are about to come due at the worst possible time. So, like homeowners with an adjustable rate mortgage that just went up, some of private equity’s titans are facing a huge squeeze.


So here is the story in simple terms and yes I am simplifying for the hard core capitalists out there who defend our beautiful system. Private Equity firms soar in to take over company A (with cheap money handed out by the Fed). In return for providing management expertise (which come at a high cost) the private equity firm usually saddles the company with huge amounts of debt (to pay for said fees), while usually "streamlining" the company (read: cutting many jobs) which helps make the company more profitable in the very near term. With that "value add" to the bottom line the company can then be flipped to the next sucker down the line for a profit. Of course even if they cannot sell for profit they still get their fees for their expertise. Heads they win, tails they win.

So what happens if the acquired company suffers in the long run due to lack of investment in the near term (which helped turbo charge profits)? Who cares. The fees were paid to the PE guys - they've moved on to the next carcass. What happens if (even worse) the company goes bankrupt from the new debts thrown onto the balance sheet. Again - who cares. The fees were paid to the PE guys - next host body to feed on. And what happens when this builds up for a number of years across an entire economic system, with debt levels skyrocketing, posing threats to company after company laden with debt? That's where your Federal Reserve comes in to the rescue making sure a system that was created due to nearly free money is bailed out by... well, more nearly free money. Do you see why the Federal Reserve is so important to our financial oligarchy? Heads they win, tails they win.

"The mind-set was, since the money was practically free, why not leverage the company to the maximum?"


Notice how we keep coming back to the same source of so many of our problems? The vaunted Federal Reserve who simply fixes everything with easy money - and then pats themselves on the back that they "fixed" the problems of their own creation. They do not take responsibility for all the damage they have caused across our financial system ... so many ill effects, too many to measure or count that happen each day because "free market" rates for loans to debtors don't apply to anything.

This also speaks to a far larger conversation about the "system" of short termism - [Sep 9, 2009: WSJ - Vanguard's John Bogle, Warren Buffet Speak Out Against Short Term Nature of Markets] for the benefit of massive profits to a tiny group of people in the country, countless companies are raided, stripped, flipped, and ripped. Great if you are a leech - not so great if you are the host body. Even the Germans (socialists mind you ;)) call private equity firms nothing more than locusts. Meanwhile the unfettered actions of the PE firms are worshiped in the Anglo-Saxon model of the UK and US (how are those 2 economies doing again?). Just since I've started the blog we've pointed out a few examples; I don't really follow this closely day to day - I am sure I missed countless others.
  1. [Apr 11, 2008: This Day in Bankruptcies - Another Airline and our First Major Retailer] Two months before Linens ’n Things was acquired, it reported $2.1 million in long-term debt; by Dec. 31, 2007, that amount had exploded to $855 million.
  2. [Jul 21, 2008: Add Mervyn's to Our Growing Litany of Retailers Headed to the Great Sunset] It would also be an embarrassment to Mervyn's owners. Private-equity firms Cerberus Capital Management and Sun Capital Partners, along with three other partners -- including real-estate investor Lubert-Adler -- acquired the chain from Target Corp. in 2004 for $1.2 billion. The group put up about $400 million in equity and financed the rest. But while thousands of employees would lose their jobs and their vendors would get hurt in a Mervyn's liquidation, the private-equity buyers wouldn't stand to take much of a financial hit. That is because when they bought the company they structured the $1.2 billion deal as two separate transactions -- one for the retailer and a second one for the retailer's real estate.
  3. Sam Zell had a run in with Tribune [Dec 8, 2008: Tribune Files for Bankruptcy] Let’s say that a group of corporate executives uses scads of debt to take over a struggling company, sells off some profitable assets, lays off thousands of employees while achieving miserable results. And then, less than a year after saddling the company with $8 billion in debt, they opt for bankruptcy. You’d expect them to walk the plank, or at the very least, spend a good stretch of time in the naughty corner. But you wouldn’t expect the top 700 managers to collect $66 million in bonuses. ... both the company’s union and the trustee appointed to oversee the bankruptcy raised objections, arguing that the bonuses would be the highest ever paid — even as the company has its lowest cash flow in 10 years.
*******************************

So this situation of asymmetric outcomes is one we should be asking as a country if we continue to want. But any time you raise some questions you get yelled at (unpatriotic! socialist! best system there is! let the free market live!) Which free market again? The one where the Federal Reserve constantly throws savers of the country under a bus to support the financial oligarchy with easy money? That is not exactly letting the free market work. But who am I to ask these questions - I just provide stories and stare blankly at walls seeing what I see, and shrugging my shoulders since very few care to ask questions. The way I see it, the dogma will rule the land and until the country runs out of hosts for the locusts to feed on, this will continue... all the while many of the hosts repeating the dogma themselves. Ironic.

If you are new to private equity (and let me be clear that some subset of the players involved actually are trying to make sensible deals and think out more than a few quarters or years) I encourage you to read that Burger King piece I listed above, and read / watch this New York Times story.

---> There is a fantastic set of mini 1-2 minute videos the New York Times - wish I could embed them but go here. It takes about 15-20 minutes to flip through them all. This should be a one time "special report" TV show on all the major networks at 8 PM Thursday night so those who only get their news from the Boob Tube could figure out part of what is going on in the country. The series is called: Flipped - How Private Equity Investors Can Win While their Companies Lose.

Again, the New York Times uses as a proxy Simmons Bedding Company for the associated story, and anyone who defends this system of leeches feeding on hosts will obviously find some strategic mistake found at Simmons itself - that's really beside the point. This is but one company in a long line of examples - the question should be about the system, not company ABC or XYZ.
  • For most of the 133 years since its founding in a small city in Wisconsin, the Simmons Bedding Company enjoyed an illustrious history.
  • Simmons says it will soon file for bankruptcy protection, as part of an agreement by its current owners to sell the company — the seventh time it has been sold in a little more than two decades — all after being owned for short periods by a parade of different investment groups, known as private equity firms, which try to buy undervalued companies, mostly with borrowed money.
  • For many of the company’s investors, the sale will be a disaster. Its bondholders alone stand to lose more than $575 million. The company’s downfall has also devastated employees like Noble Rogers, who worked for 22 years at Simmons, most of that time at a factory outside Atlanta. He is one of 1,000 employees — more than one-quarter of the work force — laid off last year.
  • But Thomas H. Lee Partners of Boston has not only escaped unscathed, it has made a profit. The investment firm, which bought Simmons in 2003, has pocketed around $77 million in profit, even as the company’s fortunes have declined. THL collected hundreds of millions of dollars from the company in the form of special dividends. It also paid itself millions more in fees, first for buying the company, then for helping run it. Last year, the firm even gave itself a small raise.
  • Wall Street investment banks also cashed in. They collected millions for helping to arrange the takeovers and for selling the bonds that made those deals possible. All told, the various private equity owners have made around $750 million in profits from Simmons over the years.
  • How so many people could make so much money on a company that has been driven into bankruptcy is a tale of these financial times and an example of a growing phenomenon in corporate America.
Financial Oligarchs always seem to win in our system.

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Of course our CEO's are also part of the "heads we win, tails we win" culture - in a smaller separate piece the tale of Simmons CEO for much of the latter part of its non bankrupt life. Again, when you pay people at a level that it does not matter how they perform; they have secured generational wealth no matter the outcome of their decisions... well you have American 'free market capitalism'. The association between wages and performance have completely broken down in the top tranches of our society.
  • Mr. Eitel, former colleagues said, really wanted to bring some sizzle to the ho-hum mattress business. He was paid millions of dollars to run Simmons for several private equity investment companies, first Fenway, then Thomas H. Lee Partners. Like those firms, he fared well, even though Simmons plans to file for bankruptcy.
  • ... while Simmons now faces an uncertain future, Mr. Eitel was a winner in The Great Game of Life. As chief executive, he enjoyed country club memberships, personal use of the corporate jet and thousands of dollars a year in free mattresses. Before stepping down last fall, he earned more than $40 million in compensation, bonuses and perks, according to an analysis by Brian Foley, an independent compensation consultant in White Plains. He earned the bulk of his money when Simmons was sold to Thomas H. Lee Partners. (heads he wins, tails he wins - $40M to help run a company into the ground; boo yah)
  • Mr. Eitel ran Simmons as if it were his fief, several former executives said. His son joined Simmons’s sales force and a son-in-law landed in the company’s marketing department. A daughter often sang at corporate functions and even wrote and recorded a series of songs that were pressed into CDs and distributed at a sales meeting in Las Vegas.
  • ... many former Simmons executives said that he ruled from afar — that he rarely appeared at the Atlanta headquarters. Instead, he spent much of his time in Naples, Fla., where he and his wife built an opulent home with a 1,000-bottle wine room and a multitier cascading pool featuring glass mosaic tiles. The home was listed this spring for $16 million.
  • Mr. Eitel also spent a great deal of time wooing clients from his 80-foot yacht, Eitel Time. With his boat, which had 11 televisions, a hot tub on the flybridge and a sunken granite-topped bar in the salon, Mr. Eitel took customers out for cocktail cruises and junkets to Martha’s Vineyard. The private equity firms that owned Simmons during Mr. Eitel’s tenure appeared to embrace Mr. Eitel’s lifestyle. The first year that Thomas H. Lee Partners owned Simmons, the mattress company even paid the $92,000 salary and benefits for the captain of his yacht.
Did he do a good job? Bad job? I don't know - his company is in bankruptcy - he can blame the PE firm I suppose. But does it matter? Not in Cramerica. Just reach the C level suite - and then keep the seat warm for a few years. Then crow about how few people in the entire world could do this work, and if you are not paid for your acumen you will (a) be unmotivated as opposed to the common peon lower in the company ranks and (b) move to another country. ;) Again, this brainwashing that only a few people on the planet have this skill set (wining and dining on a yacht cannot be too hard?) is what the defenders of the system cry out each time it's challenged. Or they say it's a one in a million anomoly - even though I could post a new example each day if I tried.

It is nice to see the stirring of emotion and understanding in the "comments" section of the story (546 comments!) - many things stay hidden in dark corners until a mainstream newspaper actually tells the tale to the unwashed masses. Perhaps only when a critical mass decide some changes need to happen will there be any real push to reconstruct the system. Hopefully we won't have to wait until it reaches "pitchfork" stage; but until them let the transfer of wealth from the many to the few continues (reverse Robin Hood) while we hear how just 0.2% of America truly has the brains to hold these exalted roles in C-level suite, investment banks, and private equity. Everyone else in the country (or globe)? Just not talented or smart enough.

************************************

Yves over at Naked Capitalism also calls out the pirates of capitalism... her well titled piece is: New York Times Fails to Call Private Equity Looting by its Proper Name

The New York Times tonight features a generally very good piece, “Buyout Firms Profited as a Company’s Debt Soared,” by Julie Creswell that falls short in one important respect: it fails to call a prevalent and destructive practice of private equity firms by its proper name.

PE firms in the risk-blind environment preceding the credit crunch got into the habit of producing good to stellar returns by modifying their usual formula. The traditional model was to buy companies with a ton of debt, then improving their bottom line by a combination of partial asset stripping (selling off ancillary operations), cost cutting, and once a blue moon, actually doing something to improve operational performance. Then the company would be sold, either privately, usually to a corporation, or taken public.

But the PE firms found a much easier approach: just pile on more and more debt, and pay themselves a special dividend. No need to do any work, just keep borrowing until you had recouped your investment and then some. And that way you did not need to care how the company fared. If you destroyed the business, it was of no mind to you and your investors. Other saps were left holding the carcass.



Boo Yah! American "free market" capitalism; working like a charm at concentrating wealth in fewer and fewer hands under the guise that just 0.2% of our nation has the brains, hence deserve all the loot. Source? Dogma.

More than half the roughly 220 companies that have defaulted on their debt in some form this year were either owned at one time or are still controlled by private equity firms, according to analysts at Standard & Poor’s.

Bookkeeping: Adding Some Short Exposure

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As we said in the weekend summary, we wanted to get some of our hedges back on once the market bounced to some degree; did not expect it to happen so soon but here we are. Overall game plan here is to get more balanced (we were as high as 4:1 long v short this morning - actually 5:1 considering some SPY calls) the higher we go towards S&P 1080, Then if required - we'll bail on the short side if the S&P 500 surges through that level as new highs would beckon the path to S&P 2500, 3500, 4500? (in nominal terms). All that is required for that wonderful scenario to happen is some more dismembering of the US dollar.

I am looking for some candidates so here are some we added today (p.s. the only profits I took today were the SPY Calls I just dumped which had been added yesterday morning anticipating some sort of bounce - did not expect *this* furious type of bouncing)

(1) Shorted Analog Devices (ADI) in low $26.80s with about 2.2% exposure; will stop out over $27.50 (would be about a 3% loss)


(2) Added back some portion of the Bunge (BG) we covered Friday. Short was near $62, same idea as the original short; will stop out over $64 (would be a 3% loss). Added about 1.5% exposure there.


I'm looking for a few similar technical set ups in other names but will go slow unless something screams at me - want to add more short exposure closer to S&P 1070 rather than 1050 if we can. I've given up shorting stocks on fundamental reasons for now since the market could care less. Stocks at 60-100x forward estimates are still being bid up in joy and glory.

While I think the market is now complete tomfoolery it's been a very profitable 4 days. We're now approximately +60% YTD vs 53% a week ago at this time.

EDIT 3 PM: I should add "big picture" if the S&P 500 falls below 1040, I'll also be looking to add some more short exposure as that would mean another break below the 20 day moving average. Right here at S&P 1050 is sort of limbo area, want to see where the market is taken next before the next set of moves. Everything I wrote above assumes the next move is up, because... well that is pretty much all we do nowadays.

Short Bunge, Analog Devices in fund; no personal position

Blackstone Group (BX) Holding 'Team Health Holdings' Files $100M IPO

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I have a very negative piece on private equity scheduled to hit at the end of the day, so let me preface that piece by saying I have very little exposure to our financial oligarchy simply because much of it revolts me. I can make money in other ways - and sleep at night. The obvious Russian mafia play is Goldman Sachs (GS) but I don't want to go there - instead I chose the king of private equity, BX, - lesser of 2 evils I suppose. That said, both the investment banking and private equity culture is helping to enact reverse Robin Hood upon the American masses (take from the many to give to the few). I am only posting that footnote in this piece because of what I have coming out in a few hours ;) It's a rip roarer.

So as I take off my "I give a care about the US economy or its people" hat, and I put on my "I love speculating and using the masses money to advance the causes of the financial oligarchy" hat, a short story on Blackstone Group (BX). The stock has bounced very well since we added some extra exposure Friday but then again.... what hasn't done well.


  • Team Health Holdings Inc, a hospital staffing company owned by a unit of private equity firm Blackstone Group (BX), has filed to raise as much as $100 million in an initial public offering.
  • Knoxville, Tennessee-based Team Health, 92 percent owned by funds affiliated with Blackstone, provides staffing and other administrative service to 550 U.S. hospitals, according to a prospectus filed on Tuesday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Team Health revenue rose 6.9 percent to $711.7 million in the first six months of 2009, with net income totaling $41.7 million, compared with a prior-year profit of $27.1 million on $665.5 million of revenue.
No shocker here - a growing company in one of the worst recessions in modern history... but it's in a sector that is immune to the reality of costs in US society: healthcare.

I suppose its a net positive that capital markets are opening up to the point that private equity can now sell off companies they've "managed" privately. Of course I assume Blackstone, like all PE firms layered the company up with debt to help pay for the fees for their expertise... that's the private equity way!
  • Potential use of proceeds from the IPO include debt repayment.
[Sep 10, 2009: Blackstone Group Rallies on Goldman Sachs Addition to Conviction Buy List]
[Aug 27, 2009: Blackstone Group Becomes Top "Fund of Fund" Player]
[Aug 6, 2009: Blackstone Group Beats, But Already Ran into Earnings]
[May 7, 2009: Blackstone Group Narrows Loss]
[Mar 31, 2009: Bookkeeping - Starting Blackstone Group]

Long Blackstone Group in fund; no personal position

Guest Post: Gregor.us - the Alignment of Asset Reflation and a Collapsed Economy

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We are coming upon interesting times... hmm, I find myself saying that a lot the last 2+ years. Well, let's say we are continuing in interesting times. For so many decades a rising stock market (or other asset values) signaled (per market dogma) "the markets" sniffing out good tidings before the rest of us could recognize it.

But is it correct to use the most dangerous words known to any investor - "it's different this time". Could rising asset values portend nothing other than a leadership class intent on playing a shell game, trying to show us how all is well again due to their paper printing prosperity? [May 19, 2009: Paper Printing Prosperity Defined] I think so. Which is why we can have deflationary aspects in our real economy while inflationary aspects in the Wall Street economy. And if you are not inflating your assets in the Wall Street economy, you are losing purchasing power by the hour - so they've got us by the short hairs again. We must buy risk assets just to keep treading water (or obviously move your dollars into gold or foreign currencies). We can also turn to Marc Faber who says very simply (I paraphrase) - "the worst the economy is, the more they will print."

To highlight the "treading water" effect, via the Big Picture some great data today; start studying up on the terms "real" v "nominal" if you are new to the blog or the finance world.

We can put into perspective the asset inflation we are seeing in many different asset classes that has been achieved in part due to a depreciating US$ by analyzing the returns in the S&P 500 and DJIA for 2009 in terms of gold (real money as opposed to fiat). This highlights again the nominal gains we are seeing in stocks this year as opposed to real gains.

In gold terms, the S&P 500 is down .7% in 2009, a far cry from the 16.9% nominal gain, as the S&P 500 buys 1.017 ounces of gold vs 1.024 on Dec 31st 2008. The DJIA in gold terms is lower by 5.7% in 2009 vs the nominal rise of 10.7% as the DJIA buys 9.37 ounces of gold today vs 9.94 on Dec 31st 2008.


What awaits us ahead? Certainly the conundrum of rising asset values while the real economy suffers has arrived... hence, unlike in the old days when assets inflating foretold "the markets signaling to us good days are ahead", instead the movement up means little more than a leadership regime gone wild with a fiat currency.

I saw this excellent post on Gregor.us and asked the author if we could bring it over since it touches on these points. I think he says what I think much more eloquently, although long time readers will recognize all the tagmarks we've been raising the red flags about. But the important point to speculators is, unlike every other time in history when assets (i.e. stocks, commodities) inflating refute bearish points; this could be the time when assets inflated could actually support the bearish view. Talk about contrarian!

Brought over in its entirety:

The Alignment of Asset Reflation and a Collapsed Economy

If all the highly informed people who’ve been waging a war the past six months against rising stock prices would just step back for a moment, they would perhaps understand better that their macro views are supported, not negated, by asset reflation. For it’s this asset reflation that hints at the singular and doomed strategy of our monetary policy, and its overlay on our collapsed economy. Just so that I’m clear: there is no macroeconomic recovery occurring in the United States. What’s unfolding currently is snap-back from last year’s crash, which led us to the bottom of a spider-hole. The positive bits of macro data, dribbling out here and there, are really just about getting us back to zero. A kind of steady-state, expected to carry on for some time to come. And that’s a best-case scenario.

You can think of the US economy as a kind of defunct amusement park, over which the FED has poured trillions of dollars of syrupy goo. The caramel candy is there for tasting, but it doesn’t turn the machines back on. The ferris wheel is silent. Since WW2, Washington has always been able to call upon Housing and Autos as the two areas to stimulate, to pull the country out of recessions. Of course, we just did that in super-sized fashion 6-7 years ago, to extract ourselves from the last recession. So, it’s kind of sad to see policy makers trying this again. Failed thinkers promote failed playbooks.

Our society’s hierarchy rests in part upon the following assumption: that the intellectual capacity of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, with his PhD and his white papers, is superior to that of a mortgage broker from Orange County, California. I think we need an adjustment to this type of assumption. Because the spread I see opening up everywhere in the US economy is what I call the Prestige-Performance gap, whereby the assertions of our elite no longer comport with observable reality. If the chairman of the Federal Reserve will not allow that the greatest credit bubble ever has now burst, or that it ever existed, then this partially explains why he would think stuffing the banking system with fresh capital would revive the economy.

Asset reflation therefore, in equities and especially in gold, should be seen not as exuberance but merely as part of the same chaos in pricing unleashed by The Federal Reserve, starting earlier this decade. As so clearly outlined in the recent data on employment, credit demand, consumer spending, and our (in)ability to save there is little to no prospect for a sustained economic recovery for one simple reason: Americans are now trapped by their debt.

For those who recognize a rising stock market as evidence of disarray, what we should anticipate now is the recognition phase where the wider public finally comes to understand the nature of our inflationary depression. My marker has been 100 dollar oil and 15% unemployment in California. That should finally get the message across. But other combinations will do: 1300 dollar gold, 1300 on the SPX, and more problems with Commercial Real Estate will also suffice. Like the prestige-performance gap, the divergence between the economy and asset prices apparently has to become even more grotesque before people will understand.

-Gregor


A "Buy Anything" Market

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I was patting myself on the back as I looked at the huge surge in the portfolio today - each and every long position is up, most materially so. Then I went into my watch lists which are literally hundreds upon hundreds of stocks - probably around 400. Excluding 50 or so which are "highly speculative" I can only find about a dozen that are in the red. It's the "buy anything market" brought to you courtesy of the destruction of your currency.

The only losers I can find:
  • Whirlpool (WHR) -1%
  • Fluor (FLR) -0.6%
  • General Cable (BGC) -1.3%
  • Chicago Mercantile (CME) -0.5%
  • Valero Energy (VLO) -0.7%
  • Ciena (CIEN) -4.5%
  • Sequenom (SQNM) -4%
  • Under Armour (UA) -1.1%
  • Darden Restaurants (DRI) -1.2%
  • Brinker International (EAT) -1%
  • Palm (PALM) -0.5%
The other 390 or so? Green.

I mentioned this in 2008 in the opposite direction - there was no need to really talk about fundamentals anymore THEN as the market trades in "student body left" formation. Now it's the exact same thing but to the upside - wasting virtual space talking about company prospects is futile. The power of algorithms.

Gold Breaks $1040 Level as The Independent Speaks of Secret Meetings to Run from the Dollar; Australia Raises Interest Rates

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Preface: I'd like every pundit who a year ago was saying the United States would be the first to recover due to 1st grade association games i.e. "first in! first out!" to come to CNBC and apologize. They still get the same air time, despite a litany of nonsense dogmatic calls, but no one calls them out for this constant drumbeat of "wrong".

While the US staggers like a drunken bum, Australia has become the first G20 country to raise interest rates overnight. I'd expect the same from India, Brazil, and a few other Asian countries in the next 6-9 months. Just about every country in the G20 ex UK, Spain seems farther along in the "first in, first out" game.
  • Australia's central bank raised its key cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent, saying it was safe to pull back on stimulus spending. It is the first G20 central bank to raise rates.
This immediately puts pressure on the dollar as countries which pay higher rates on capital will see inflows.

This followed a story last night from the UK paper The International: "The Demise of the Dollar" which proposes that secret meetings have been going on between Arab oil states, China, Japan, France, and Russia to begin pricing oil in something not called the US dollar. I've read The International from time to time, and some of what they write is sensationalist (in my opinion) and this story has zero sources so I am not going to repost it here. You can follow the link above to read the whole thing - but in summary:

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.


Heck for all I know Tim Geithner leaked this story, as the leadership of America has only 1 plan to take care of the economy and our massive debts. Inflate inflate - and then inflate more; best accomplished by destroying American savers with a systematic deflation of the US peso.

So you know what these 2 things mean ... the nascent "recovery" in the dollar from massive oversold status was shot in the heart overnight and all the world's trading computers go into the same old trade - sell the dollar, and buy every risk asset on the planet. This has led to a new all time high in gold, as we've peaked over $1040. Silver is also up roughly 4%, well north of $17 again...
  • Gold rose to a record on speculation that inflation will accelerate and erode the value of the dollar, boosting the appeal of the precious metal for investors seeking to preserve their wealth.
  • “Gold has just begun its ascent,” said John Brynjolfsson, the chief investment officer of Armored Wolf LLC, a hedge fund in Aliso Viejo, California. “As central banks print more and more money, the private demand for gold as an investment and inflation hedge is destined to grow. It’s pretty clear that gold will be at $2,000 by 2012, and it could happen a lot faster.”
  • Gold held in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETF backed by the metal, reached an all-time high of 1,134 metric tons on June 1 and was at 1,098.07 tons yesterday. The fund has passed Switzerland as the world’s sixth-largest gold holding.

I am not even holding silver and gold for inflation concerns - I think deflation (in the real economy) is more the near term risk since the US economy is so poor. However, we can have deflation in the real economy while we have inflation / asset bubbles in the Wall Street economy... my main goal is holding these precious metals as a store of value against a leadership regime intent on destroying our currency to create "prosperity". I will repeat this - all those celebrating the destruction of the dollar have to ask at what point it stops being a "good thing" and turns into a "bad thing". But for now, the worst the dollar is - the better for all things priced in dollars.

As for the S&P 500 this rebound should look very familiar; in fact identical to the last two rallies.


Long Powershares DB Gold Double Long, Ultra Silver Proshares

Morning Reading: Andrew Ross Sorkin in Vanity Fair - Wall Street's Near Death Experience

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Andrew Ross Sorkin of the New York Times has a book to sell "Too Big to Fail" but as I was saying in 2008... as historical and fascinating and earth shaking events at the time were, when the dirt all comes out on what was done, how it was done, and why it was done - that's where the true intrigue and jaw dropping should occur. Which is saying a lot considering what happened about a year ago. I am not sure if we'll ever know it all, but I'm sure the soap opera theatrics will be bountiful once exposed.

Sorkin has an excerpt from his book in this month's Vanity Fair. Still working my way through it, put it in your docket. Some snippets:


DAY ONE


‘This is an economic 9/11!” (said John Mack, CEO of Morgan Stanlet) There was chilling silence in Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s office as he spoke. Nearly two dozen Treasury staffers had assembled there Wednesday morning, sitting on windowsills, on the arms of sofas, or on the edge of Paulson’s desk, scribbling on legal pads. Paulson was seated in a chair in the corner, slouching, nervously tapping his stomach. He had a pained look on his face as he explained to his inner circle at Treasury that in just the past four hours the crisis had reached a new height, one he could compare only to the World Trade Center attacks, seven years earlier, almost to the week. While this time no lives may have been at stake, companies with century-long histories and hundreds of thousands of jobs lay in the balance.

The entire economy, he said, was on the verge of collapsing. Paulson was no longer worried about just investment banks; he was worried about General Electric, the world’s largest company and an icon of American innovation. Jeffrey Immelt, G.E.’s C.E.O., had told him that the conglomerate’s commercial paper, used to fund its day-to-day operations, could stop rolling. Paulson had also heard murmurs that JPMorgan Chase had stopped lending to Citigroup; that Bank of America had stopped making loans to McDonald’s franchisees; that Treasury bills were trading for less than 1 percent interest, as if they were no better than cash, as if the full faith of the government had suddenly become meaningless.

It had been six months between the implosions of Bear Stearns and Lehman, but if Morgan Stanley went down, probably no more than six hours would pass before Goldman did, too. The big banks would follow, and God only knew what might happen after that.

And so Paulson stood in front of his staff in search of a holistic solution, a solution that would require intervention. He still hated the idea of bailouts, but now he knew he needed to succumb to the reality of the moment. “The only way to stop this thing may be to come up with a fiscal response,” he said.


DAY TWO

The panic at Goldman Sachs could no longer be denied. Goldman’s shares opened down 7.4 percent. Investors were quickly beginning to believe the unthinkable: that Goldman, too, could falter. In two days, its share price had dropped from $133 to $108.

Every five minutes a salesman would tear into Schwartz’s office with news of another hedge fund announcing its plan to move its money out of Goldman, and would hand Cohn a piece of paper with the hedge fund’s phone number so he could try to talk some sense into them. With Morgan Stanley slowing down its payouts, some investors were now testing Goldman, asking for $100 million just to see if it could afford to pay. In every case, Cohn would wire the money immediately, concerned that if he didn’t the client would abandon the firm entirely.

Nevertheless, Stanley Druckenmiller, a George Soros acolyte worth more than $3.5 billion, had taken most of his money out earlier that week, concerned about the firm’s solvency. If word got around that a hedge-fund manager of Druckenmiller’s reputation had lost confidence in Goldman, that alone could cause a run. Cohn called him and tried to persuade him to return the money to the firm. “I have a long memory,” Cohn, who was taking this personally, told Druckenmiller, in whose honor he had even once hosted a charity cocktail party. “Look, the one thing I’m doing is I’m learning who my friends are and who my enemies are, and I’m making lists.”

Druckenmiller, however, was unmoved. “I don’t really give a s***—it’s my money!” he shot back. Unlike most hedge funds, Druckenmiller’s consisted primarily of his own money. “It’s my livelihood,” he said. “I’ve got to protect myself, and I don’t really give a s*** what you have to say.

.... Lloyd Blankfein, his top shirt button undone and tie slightly askew, looked at his computer screen and saw in dismay that his stock price had dropped 22 percent over the past several hours to $89.29. In his e-mail in-box was a message from one of his traders saying that JPMorgan was trying to steal his hedge-fund clients by telling everyone that Goldman was going under. It was becoming a vicious circle.

Blankfein had been hearing these rumors for the past 24 hours, but he had finally had enough. He was furious. The rumormongering, he felt, had gotten out of control. And he couldn’t believe JPMorgan was trashing his firm to his own clients. He could feel himself becoming as anxious as Mack had sounded when they spoke the day before.

But just then, at one p.m., the market—and Goldman’s stock—suddenly turned around, with Goldman rising to $87 a share, and then $89. Traders raced through their screens trying to determine what had been responsible for the lift and discovered that the Financial Services Authority in the U.K. had announced a 30-day ban on short-selling 29 financial stocks, including Goldman Sachs’s.

Monday, October 5, 2009

Kyle Bass Hayman Capital October Letter to Investors

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Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital was one of the winners in the subprime debacle (identifying, and profiting from it). This is a lengthy read but oh so good - I am only through the first third; many of the same thoughts we post on a daily/weekly/monthly basis on Fund My Mutual Fund. If I communicated with readers once a quarter rather than on a daily basis, this quite possibly could be the exact same latter I'd be writing.

It's quite an amazing battle shaping up between those who live inside the Matrix versus the small band of us on the outside.

p.s. please note page 8 of the letter what Bass posts a cropped photo from the FHA website. I cannot make this up. "Refinance or Purchase FHA Home Loans... NO CREDIT CHECK" And this folks, is how you get a "housing recovery" - that we will all pay for in spades both on the front end and back end (read into that as you will)

[Make sure to "zoom" up to 100%, otherwise it's a bit difficult to read]

Hay Man

Hat tip to PragCap via ZeroHedge.

S&P 500 Rallies Back to 20 Day Moving Average

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As with all breaks of the 20 day moving average, however brief, the S&P 500 has quickly rebounded now and sits right below it. Every other episode the past half year this level was quickly reclaimed and back to the ever present rally we returned to. As I continue to say, everyone will keep playing the pattern until it fails. Since failure only happens once - the odds are on your side. When that failure comes, that will be a true change in character and one can adjust - no reason to be a hero and "predict" things in advance.

From here, the fragile bears still have a a few chances: (1) no break north of the 20 day moving average (2) stalling at some level below S&P 1080 potentially setting up a head and shoulders formation or (3) stalling right at S&P 1080 potentially setting up a double top formation.

That is a lot of gobbley gook if you don't bother with technical analysis but trust me, HAL9000 and his computers know what it means.

If Larry Summers still has the reigns S&P 1080 will be smashed and we'll be off to the races again. So now we just sit back and observe. If we continue to rally I'll start rehedging at higher levels and then "exit" some of the hedges (mentally "stopping" myself out) if S&P 1080 is smashed and the race to S&P 2500 by 2010 returns.

Unemployed masses of Americans? That is so last week. Remember, the more people out of work - the less expenses for corporate America (better profits) ... green shoots.

p.s. on a halfway related note we've seen a lot of mainstream media attention to the farce that is the birth death model after the 824K (additional job losses) "oopsie" admitted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last Friday... it is always good when the media figures things about a half decade after a few voices on the internets (sic) [Jan 27, 2008: Monthly Jobs Report & Birth Death Model] Why no one in media was questioning how our government was telling us (just throwing out one example) in any one month during the deepest recession of our lives that 100K jobs were being created by companies "too small to survey" is beyond me. Especially when some of those jobs were in hot sectors such as... uhh, construction. Garbage in, garbage out aka "you can't handle the truth".

hat tip Barry R for cartoon (the 3rd panel seems to be cut off so click on cartoon for the "reveal")

Dilbert.com

NYT: China Set to Pass Japan as World's 2nd Largest Economy

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For those of us in our mid 30s and older it is quite amazing to see what has happened to Japan. About 2 decades ago much of the talk you hear about China (ex demographics) today applied to Japan. Now, after 2 lost decades people are asking if Japan will be the next Switzerland - rich and comfortable, but of little global import. Or is even that too hopeful?

  1. [Sep 21, 2009: NYT - Japan Struggles to Balance Growth and Job Stability]
  2. [Oct 28, 2008: Pooring of Japan Too?]
  3. [Jul 29, 2009: Japan's Herbivore Men - Young American Men's Future?]
  4. [Nov 17, 2008: Poverty, Pension Fears Drive Japan's Elderly Citizens to Crime]
  5. [Feb 26, 2009: NYT - When Consumers Cut Back - An Object Lesson from Japan]
  6. [Feb 8, 2009: NYT - Japan's Big Works Stimulus is a Lesson]

It is interesting to watch our 2 largest creditors jockey - one flailing, one sailing. I'm sure as Americans today say "that could never happen here", Japanese 20 years ago said the same.

via New York Times
  • For years, Japan has been readying itself for the day that it is eclipsed economically by China. But as a result of the global slowdown, Japan’s difficulty in managing its economy and China’s rise — on vivid display Thursday as Beijing celebrated the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic — that day may come sooner than anyone predicted.
  • Though recent wild currency swings could delay the reckoning, many economists expect Japan to cede its rank as the world’s second-largest economy sometime next year, as much as five years earlier than previously forecast.
  • At stake are more than regional bragging rights: the reversal of fortune will bring an end to a global economic order that has prevailed for 40 years, with ramifications across arenas from trade and diplomacy to, potentially, military power.
  • China’s rise could accelerate Japan’s economic decline as it captures Japanese export markets, and as Japan’s crushing national debt increases and its aging population grows less and less productive — producing a downward spiral.
  • Not long ago, Japan was “the economic miracle,” an ascendant juggernaut on its way to rivaling the United States, which has the biggest economy. Now, many here ask whether Japan is destined to be the next Switzerland: rich and comfortable, but of little global import, largely ignored by the rest of the world. Yet even this widely held hope among the country’s 127 million people may be slipping from Japan’s grasp.
  • The per-capita gross domestic product of Japan, which surged past that of the United States in the late 1980s, stalled at $34,300 in 2007; it is now a quarter below American levels and 19th in the world. Both income inequality and poverty are on the rise.
  • (Over the last 2 decades) Japan stagnated as huge public works projects aimed at reviving the economy went toward protecting moribund industries instead of fostering new ones, failing to lift Japan out of its doldrums while creating a huge debt burden. (thankfully, we are not at all like Japan...ahem)
  • The richest man in Japan, the retailing entrepreneur Tadashi Yanai, was 76th in the most recent global Forbes list, behind moguls from countries like Mexico, India and the Czech Republic — a far cry from the late 1980s, when Japanese industrialists like the railroad tycoon Yoshiaki Tsutsumi were among those at the top.
  • China has also surpassed Japan in having the biggest trade surplus and foreign currency reserves, as well as the highest steel production. And next year, China could overtake Japan as the largest automobile producer.
So if you believe in the consensus in America, Japan has no chance with what they are attempting now.
  • A new government has vowed to take Japan on a new development path, one that relies less on the exports that have long driven growth and is more focused on increasing domestic demand. The Democratic Party, which recently swept the long-ruling Liberal Democrats out of power, has promised to strengthen social welfare and redistribute wealth more evenly.
As we said in our September piece above, Japan tried to follow some sort of hybrid Japanese/US model (heavy on deregulation, emphasis on nomadic temporary workforce) - found the form of capitalism was not working, and now appears to be moving to a Western European style economy. Obviously I am making a simplistic statement of a very complicated situation with thousands of moving parts - but seeing one party that has been entrenched for so long finally swept out shows the masses finally have had enough and are willing to try something new. Not much different than our 2 party system which is essentially "the same party" now. We'll see how many more decades before we see a similar "enough is enough, we'll try anything different" cry. Ross Perot was probably a few decades too early. ;)

I don't talk about REALLY long term predictions on the website, but I believe as the globe flattens and many more Americans are flattened by global wage arbitrage and reduced lifestyle / stability, you will be seeing some quite historic changes in attitudes domestically as well.
  • Per-capita income in China is still less than a tenth that in Japan. But by other measures, the Chinese economy long ago overtook that of Japan.
  • In terms of overall purchasing power, China surpassed Japan in 1992 and will overtake the United States before 2020. (<---- what? impossible you say!)
  • In some ways, this reflects economic fundamentals: As countries develop, growth tends to slow. Annual growth in Japanese gross domestic product averaged 10.4 percent in the 1960s and 5 percent in the 1970s, but only 4 percent in the 1980s and 1.8 percent in the 1990s, according to Goldman Sachs. In the first decade of this century, growth has been even slower.
  • “Japan is neighbors with a rapidly growing market,” said Nobuo Iizuka, chief economist at the Japan Center for Economic Research. “That is a great advantage, not a threat. The question is, can Japan build on that advantage?”
  • Still, said C. H. Kwan, a senior fellow at the Nomura Institute of Capital Market Research, based in Tokyo, “this is a big psychological shock to Japan.”
  • Based on current growth and currency trends, Mr. Kwan forecasts that the Chinese economy could surpass that of the United States in 2039. And that date could move up to 2026 if China lets its currency appreciate by a mere 2 percent a year.
As I keep saying, we live in interesting times and I think the next few decades are going to make the last few look like peanuts. The big question for China now is can they secure enough of the world's resources to make a run at the US.
  • “We’re no longer talking about China making lots of shoes,” he said. “China is about to leave everyone behind in a big way.”
Selling China in 2009 would be like selling American in 1909.- Jim Rogers


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