Friday, November 13, 2009

Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Mumbai to join New York, London, Paris as World's Dominant Cities by 2025

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I admit I am fascinating by these type of  projections / analysis, and since much of the anticipated world growth (and hence investment) will be headed along these lines it fits perfectly with what we sort through weekly on the site.  According to PriceWaterhouseCoopers, over the next 15 years the "top 5" cities in the world shall remain the same but a new class of entrants will be hurtling into the top 10.  It will be interesting to look back in a decade or two from now to see how accurate this becomes... i.e. are we making the same mistakes forecasters did in 1989 when it seemed Japan would take over the world?

It appears the measurement tool is a  "gross domestic product per capita".

The PwC estimates of city output are based on combining United Nations population estimates for cities in 2008 with estimates of GDP per capita at purchasing power parities, which equalise the approximate costs of living.

First an overview with the UK Guardian:
  • New York, London and Paris may trip off the tongue as the world's top cities in terms of wealth but over the next 15 years emerging cities like Sao Paulo, Shanghai and Mumbai will give them a run for their money, says new research.
  • According to consultant PricewaterhouseCoopers, the economic growth of many cities in the emerging world is so much stronger than that in many developed economies that the league table of the world's great cities is going to change radically between now and 2025.
  • Shanghai is set to rise from 25th place to 9th by then, with Mumbai likely to storm to 11th in the global gross domestic product per capita rankings from its current slot at number 29. Similarly, Beijing will leap from 38th to 17th place.   Sao Paulo in Brazil is in 10th place but is likely to rise to 6th by 2025, ahead of Paris but still behind the current and projected top five of Tokyo, New York, Los Angeles, London and Chicago.
  • "If you look at the projected percentage GDP growth from 2008 to 2025 of the top emerging and the top advanced economy cities, the comparison is stark," said John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PwC.  "Cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Mumbai, for example, are projected to grow at around 6-7% per annum in real terms, whereas cities such as New York, Tokyo, Chicago and London grow only at around 2% per annum on average." 
  • "In absolute terms, the projected rise in Shanghai's GDP between 2008 and 2025 is greater than the combined GDP increase for London and Paris together."
  • Thomas Hoehn, an economics partner at PwC, added: "Global economic activity is concentrated in the world's largest cities and it is important to understand how those cities compare, especially when many developed economies are experiencing economic difficulties while countries like China and India continue to grow."
Some changes in the bottom half of the top 30:
  • Delhi, Guangzhou and Rio de Janeiro are all likely to rise rapidly up the table between now and 2025, PwC says, as are Istanbul and Cairo. Lots of American and European cities, however, are set to slide sharply over the same period, with cities like Sydney, Singapore and Madrid likely to drop out of the top 30 altogether.

Fascinating statistic below in terms of concentration of production/wealth in the world's largest cities:
  • The research shows that the largest 100 cities accounted for about 30% of global GDP in 2008 and some have bigger economies than medium-sized countries like Sweden or Switzerland.

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Being curious, I headed over the PriceWaterhouseCoopers website to see if more data could be located and we have this snazzy chart, showing the full list of 30 now, v projections in 2025.  (the far right column is cut off a bit - apologies)  Definitely some surprises even in the current top 30 - Mexico City was one but part of this is HOW the projection is done... population has a lot to do with it, and Mexico City is huge.  To that end, despite a huge economy Germany does not have 1 single city in the list.
  • Aside from London and Paris, only two other European cities (Moscow and Madrid) made the top 30 in 2008.    This reflects the fact that countries like Germany and Italy (which only became unified nation states in the 19th century) have several major cities that are medium-sized in global terms, rather than one dominant capital city as in the UK or France.
Too bad Washington D.C. does not have more population - with the way it is growing it would of had a great chance to be #1. ;)


Top 30 urban agglomeration GDP rankings in 2008 and illustrative projections to 2025
(using UN definitions and population estimates)

Rank in 2008
Cities ranked by estimated 2008 GDP at PPPs
Est. GDP in 2008 ($bn at PPPs)
Rank in 2025
Cities ranked by projected 2025 GDP at PPPs
Est. GDP
in 2025
($bn at
2008 PPPs)

Real GDP
growth rate

(% pa: 2009-2025)
1
Tokyo
1479
1
Tokyo
1981
1.7%
2
New York
1406
2
New York
1915
1.8%
3
Los Angeles
792
3
Los Angeles
1036
1.6%
4
Chicago
574
4
London
821
2.2%
5
London
565
5
Chicago
817
2.1%
6
Paris
564
6
Sao Paulo
782
4.2%
7
Osaka/Kobe
417
7
Mexico City
745
3.9%
8
Mexico City
390
8
Paris
741
1.6%
9
Philadelphia
388
9
Shanghai
692
6.6%
10
Sao Paulo
388
10
Buenos Aires
651
3.5%
11
Washington DC
375
11
Mumbai (Bombay)
594
6.3%
12
Boston
363
12
Moscow
546
3.2%
13
Buenos Aires
362
13
Philadelphia
518
1.7%
14
Dallas/Fort Worth
338
14
Hong Kong
506
2.7%
15
Moscow
321
15
Washington DC
504
1.8%
16
Hong Kong
320
16
Osaka/Kobe
500
1.1%
17
Atlanta
304
17
Beijing
499
6.7%
18
San Francisco/Oakland
301
18
Boston
488
1.8%
19
Houston
297
19
Delhi
482
6.4%
20
Miami
292
20
Dallas/Fort Worth
454
1.8%
21
Seoul
291
21
Guangzhou
438
6.8%
22
Toronto
253
22
Seoul
431
2.3%
23
Detroit
253
23
Atlanta
412
1.8%
24
Seattle
235
24
Rio de Janeiro
407
4.2%
25
Shanghai
233
25
San Francisco/Oakland
406
1.8%
26
Madrid
230
26
Houston
400
1.8%
27
Singapore
215
27
Miami
390
1.7%
28
Sydney
213
28
Istanbul
367
4.2%
29
Mumbai (Bombay)
209
29
Toronto
352
2.0%
30
Rio de Janeiro
201
30
Cairo
330
5.0%
Source: PwC estimates and projections using UN population data and definitions Growth rates in final column relate to the cities ranked by projected GDP in 2025 in the fifth column of the table. Cities rising by more than 3 places in the rankings between 2008 and 2025 are highlighted in bold in the table.

Our primary estimates of city output are based on combining UN population estimates for cities in 2008 with estimates of GDP per capita at purchasing power parities (PPPs)

More text:
  • Looking at the 2008 rankings (see table above), Mexico City and Sao Paulo are the emerging economy cities already in the top 10 when ranked by GDP, but Buenos Aires is not far behind in 13th place and Moscow in 15th. 
  • Shanghai and Mumbai have jumped into the top 30 with their strong growth between 2005 and 2008. There are also a number of fast-growing emerging economy cities just outside the current top 30, including Istanbul (34th), Beijing (38th), Manila (40th), Cairo (42nd) and Guangzhou (44th).
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