Thursday, October 15, 2009

Bookkeeping: Some Sales

We have a very obvious gap formed yesterday morning that we have to ask "when" does it get filled? This morning Goldman Sachs (GS) obliterated analyst estimates... surely *I* for one was surprised (ahem). But everyone expected this and the stock did not surge for the 85th out of 93rd session in a row. Google (GOOG) is after the bell and we all know they will beat ... so will IBM (IBM) - they almost always do in the game of "set expectations low, and beat it". IBM also benefits huge from weak US currency. But if everyone knows it are we going to continue to act surprised? Who knows. Ball remains in bulls court and "buy every dip" in religious fervor remains the game of the day....

As always its not the news but the reaction to the news. What was striking to me was the non reaction in gold yesterday... silver did ok but usually when the dollar goes in for its daily slaughter these both react well. At least of late ... not so much yesterday. Bank of America (BAC) and General Electric (GE) out tomorrow before the bell.

I am going to take some profits into this hectic run, I believe we have been up 7 out of 8 sessions in a row. I'm soon running out of long exposure so I've been reticent to cut too much. I don't have trailing stops as an option in my model portfolio so short of putting stop losses in and changing them daily (which I don't have time to do) I instead am just cutting when I have gains and keeping to my "core holding" and "trading" dual strategy working.

AsiaInfo Holdings (ASIA) went ballistic yesterday, so I cut half the position today just under $23.

Gafisa (GFA) has been obliterating bears the past week, I cut this position by 40% today in the $36.20 - an obvious gap to fill.

TriQuint Semidoncutor (TQNT) surged late last week - ironically its two other peers we hold have not been able to rally at all the past 7-8 days while the markets is on fire. That says something; I am not sure what - especially since those 2 names already preannounced good results. I sold 33% of the stake under $8.40.

These are all buy on dips (if and when) situations if afforded to us; if they continue to run oh well - we're lounging at the virtual pool sipping on virtual fruity drinks as we enjoy our year. I am not making any sort of near term call with these sales, simply locking in profits along the way.

Long Gafisa, AsiaInfo Holdings, and TriQuint Semi in fund; no personal positions

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