Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Bookkeeping: Cutting Back Greenhill & Co (GHL) and Adding to Short Exposure

I am cutting back Greenhill & Co (GHL) as I don't like how this chart smells, I'd like to see this name regain the 50 day moving average. For now its back below a 1% exposure.

If we close red today it will be a reversal day; we've had a few of these and the market has shrugged them off and just raced to green the next day or two. Normally they are bearish but nothing is normal nowadays. I am increasing my insurance to the downside... of course futures will be up tomorrow morning as they are 8 out of 10 days. Because as we know, the market hours are not long enough and "someone" is always eager to buy futures between 7 AM and 9 AM. Day after day...

One day bulls will wake up and wonder how they could be so "green shooty" about the US economy. I don't know when that day comes.... but complacency is now high as VIX is back below 30 for the first time since pre Lehman. Granted in the old days a reading above 30 used to indicate "panic" but these are not the old days.

As always the news does not matter - until it does. At some point the exact same news that has been ignored week after week will be the "cause" of a selloff. The news will be no different - just the reaction to it.

Long Greenhill & Co in fund; no personal position

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