I've begun a modest 1.0% stake shorting Ultrashort Financial; if we get any sort of sustained rally this ETF should hit the $130-$150 range. If the market crumbles any further I'd actually be adding to this short (I won't stop out) as my time frame is longer in duration - it is not a technical scalp. If you are just betting on a quick jump in financials you'd rather go with the UYG... it's more of a difference of time frame...
Short Ultrashort Financial in fund and personal account
9 comments:
Carter Worth (Chartology) was just on CNBC's Fast Money. He made a technical case for our pretty much having found a bottom and to be careful of shorts. I've not really been to keen on his calls, but as I say, at this point, the market can go either way.
He also used Berkshire as a tell. In essence, he feels that this point marks the double bottom for BERK-A, and if it holds, then the market should respond positively, or at least trundle on for another few months, in the same time duration as the 2002 bottom.
So, maybe you're OK with your inverted SKF.. Course, I was hammered on FAS today and it should have reversed direction.. We'll see tomorrow. jegan
By the way, did you catch, or hear about Jim Cramer's speech about how the Proshares Ultrashorts are causative of our banking problems? This from a guy that admits to shorting in his Hedge Fund? Mind boggling!
jegan
I like your shorting SKF idea ... I don't see how it could go wrong over a reasonably long time-frame.
A **real man** would short FAS :-)
I think you mean FAZ (not FAS)
No, I really don't watch Cramer anymore - don't have the time. If its something that pertains to my stock, I'll check it out. The TV show is just a circus, so its too much of a time investment for very little value add.
So true.. FAZ, not FAS. As I hit enter, I did think I saw an 'S' whiz by..
Speaking of shorts. Looking at Tanger Factory Outlet (REIT) SKT. Looks like they'll be trending down after our little ramp up. They are just short of analysts recommended value and are dropping earnings. Only problem is large number of existing shorts (Unlike APOL, which is lightly shorted)
Also, noticed that SGP has had it's Daily MA20 cross below MA50. Could be that big money is beginning to abandon the safe plays? Well all except Heebner that is.
I use EMA versus SMA so in my world SGP fell below 200 day yesterday but the 20 has not crossed below the 50
when market crashes so hard I dont think TA has as much use as in a normalized market. Many charts get screwed up when people are tossing anything aside.
I prefer EMA, but I use a set of three nested Bollingers as well. As the Bollingers use an SMA, I just had too many lines on the page. Did look pretty psychedelic though.
And you're right about TA not worth a lot at this 'tipping point'. It just becomes a mob rule type issue. What has been helping me a little is to check the timeframe on either side of where I'm trading for volume and trend. At least I can see where my chart is in the scheme of things.Helps to stand back. Still need tight stops.
jegan
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