I like AXYS the best simply because you have 2 resistance levels (sort of like insurance) right next to each other that must be broken to turn from bear to bull. COF is beautiful from the point you have a series of lower highs...
Google (GOOG) - stop loss $331
Apple (AAPL) - stop loss $96 (however $85 looks like a good floor for this, if it breaks $85 its also an excellent short)
Axsys Technologies (AXYS) - stop loss $58
Exactech (EXAC) - stop loss $17.50
Ryland (RYL) - stop loss $18.50
Mastercard (MA) - stop loss $160
JCPenney (JCP) - stop loss $22
Capital One (COF) - stop loss $35
Goldman Sachs (GS) - stop loss $90 (north of $90 this would actually be an intriguing long as you have a series of higher lows since late Nov)
Any number of financials are also available which are doing not so much today - BAC, JPM, et alIn about a day or two the "worst of breed" which shorts are covering en masse today (many up 15%+) should be in excellent shorting positions.
No positions
12 comments:
My favorites are the gold stocks. GG is at a double top just above the 200 day after a 100% gain. Looks like a move above 32.50 would be a good point to cover and go long.
forgot to mention that its noticeably down today with the markets up nearly 3%... nice!
Yes thats a good one, I'd go closer to 33 to reverse course
it is interesting that gold is not rallying today when in theory todays leaders are the "reflation" trade - i.e. global growth is back, governments will save us, deflation is not an issue... gold should be going up on that. The fact it is not, should be saying something.
Are you shorting them now or next week?
XOM a great short touching 200ma.
Shax, I can't short remember. With the stop losses outlined I'd be willing to throw them on at this time. I anxiously look forward to the end of next week - maybe the S&P will be 1000 by that time so even better opportunities arise.
PI, the problem with XOM is its part of the S&P 500 and the largest market cap so if you want this market up you have to move XOM up.
If you noticed when oil was being bloodied much of the past 6 weeks, XOM was holding steady. Hmm, shocker considering if it fell hard the Dow and S&P would fall hard with it. Coincidence I am sure. I just think there are easier plays than the name a lot of people have a vested interest in keeping up.
do you not short some of these stocks in your personal account?
Jumped on the RYL short as well. Thanks for the tip. Concerned that the market might jump to 1000 next week as well, but after 3 days of strong gains w/o most traders around I'm almost betting that pull it down to start next week. At least shake some people out first.
Unfortunately, I've spent much of the past 10 years throwing most of my savings into 401ks and IRAs trying to actually think ahead for retirement.
By nature outside of those new fangled ETFs which are blood sucking leaches, there has been no way to short. So by doing the "right thing" I've been stuck in a decade of no returns full of mutual fund managers who stink.
I really only have 5-7 positions at any one point; I run a very concentrated strategy - different from what I do here. I'm in and out of things generally quite quickly although not I've let a few laggards stick around over the past few years.
Mark -
For your stop losses, do you cover your short positions after the stock breaches your stop loss on a closing price, or do you cover on an intraday break of the stop?
in most markets probably a close
in crazy markets I'd be willing to go intraday.
Volatility is reduced now but I'm still wary so for now I'd stick to intraday - but as you know the reversals in this type of market can make you look silly. That's the price for safety.
In my humble opinion, COF looks like the best short of the bunch if you step back and look at the macro picture. It might still go up in the short run, especially if the market continues its present rally.
If you are looking at a stock to short just from a fundamental perspective, look at CCRT. The company provides credit cards to those with sub-prime scores. Can you ask for a more perfect set-up for the year ahead? It has already had a tremendous fall during the past year, but if I had to pick one stock to go to zero next year, this might be it. It is a pick of the Motley Fool, which is where I first ran across it (and lost a buttload of money actually investing in it before I started thinking about my stock picks and before I ran across Mark's great blog).
Yes I have been pointing out COF for over a year for fundamental reasons but these were just technical set ups.
Nice find on CCRT - never heard of it but that's because I tend to focus on companies that actually have a nice business. This sucker has gone from under 4.50 to over 5.50 (Obama! Obama!) in 2 days. Resistence at $6 - as I said in the piece, a few more days of this action and a couple of the worst stocks to own are going to be jumping to excellent levels to short. This one has a key line in the sand at $6.
But thats the lovely thing about the stock market; if you bought such a lovely company a month ago, you'd be up nearly 80% :)
Sort of like the folks still trading AIG for some ungodly reason. Always an opportunity to make money on each side of a trade - it's all about time horizon.
Maybe we can ignore everything until Jan 20th, and once money does not fall out of the sky people will start to face reality. Who knows. :)
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