Today the stock is down near 8% and in the mid $32s so I am slowly going to rebuild the position - the 50 day moving average is at $32 so normally this would be a nice entry point but Cramer nation lemmings made the stock gap up from $30.60s or so - and usually these gaps fill. And there is no reason to be aggressive in this market.
So we have now taken this position up from 0.8% to 2.7% - if the stock further weakens to its 200 day moving average in the $27s we'll add a larger batch there. I am not counting on it, but it is possible in this market. Typical of the casino action in the stock market, the stock was in the mid $38s at its high on Tuesday. In this market you must be quick (to take profits) - or dead.
Since the company reported in September we don't carry any earnings risk for a few months so another "safety" feature.
Speaking of, we have 2 names in the portfolio and the 1 name I'd really like to add to the portfolio reporting after the bell tonight; based on what I saw last night in the earnings space - I have a lot of trepidation. Retail sales were terrible today ex Walmart (WMT). My "tells" for middle America are Target (TGT) and Kohls (KSS) - both awful although the latter is rallying a bit on "not as bad as the horrific results we expected". More and more Americans are being forced into Walmart - a trend I don't see changing in the year ahead. Remember we are overbuilt in our entire service industry - so we're going to see a bevy of closings in 2009 in retail and restaurants.
We are starting to get some serious multi decade readings now - highest continual jobless claims in 25 years, worst October in retail since 1969, etc. So when people say "what's the fuss - this is just a minor hiccup" don't believe the Kool Aid - the government statistics are simply understating everything. GDP, inflation reports, and monthly employment reports have all been proven to be figures a government spins to make people think things are better than they are.
- The nation's retailers saw their sales plummet last month to the weakest October level since at least 1969, as the financial crisis and mounting layoffs left shoppers too scared to shop.
A number of stores, including J.C. Penney Co. and Nordstrom Inc., cut their profit outlooks as they slashed prices on everything from coats to holiday ornaments in a desperate bid to pull in shoppers. Analysts expect a do-or-die holiday season for more retailers, which have already seen competitors like Mervyns LLC and Linens 'N Things forced to liquidate.
The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits reached its highest level in more than 25 years, according to government figures released Thursday.
Long AeroVironment in fund; no personal position
