Friday, October 10, 2008

Today's Line in the Sand: S&P 840

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Every day in this brutal market there is some technical line in the sand that gets completely blown up. Technicals in crashes are showing to be quite useless. I remember thinking way back in the day (err, yesterday) that 960 was the line in the sand - once that broke I went from the 25% short exposure to 40%. Today's line in the sand is S&P (gulp) 840. This is the opening low and we just retested it an hour or so ago. So if technicals mean anything it's either a potential intraday double bottom or meaningless noise as we approach "Redemption Hour" aka 3 PM.

So I'll follow the same script as yesterday - if we break below 840 we'll be adding a lot of short exposure waiting for the Monday the 13th Crash - they are now coming weekly. It is completely surreal but we've now lost approaching 22% in the major indexes I track this week.... thats a bear market in a week. And 32%+ in two weeks. The typical post World War II bear market (13-17 months) has been a 30-31% loss. We surpassed that in 2 weeks. And still there appears to be no one wanting to buy.

These days will be burned into memories forever.

2 comments:

Pankaj said...

Since gold has come off so much, my gut tells me that this time the 3-4PM crowd is going to take this market HIGHER!!! Long a ton of index calls! If it breaks 840, will cash out for a loss!!

Best..

TraderMark said...

Congrats on that great trade

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