Thursday, October 16, 2008

Peabody Energy (BTU) Continues to Execute

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It's a shame to watch these stocks in coal and fertilizer execute and be shot day after day. Until the hedge funds are cleared of all their inventory, fundamentals simply don't matter. Peabody Energy (BTU) reported an excellent quarter today (beat earnings expectations by 56%) & raised guidance, but today's 12% gain in stock price does not even offset yesterday's loss - not to mention 3 months of going straight down. Just another company with a sub 10 PE ratio; join the pile.
  • Peabody Energy Corp. reported a higher-than-expected quarterly profit on Thursday, as it benefited from strong global demand and higher prices in all regions. The St. Louis-based company, one of the world's biggest coal producers, raised its earnings guidance for the full year, saying it now expects income from continuing operations of $3.00 to $3.25 per share, up from $2.50 to $3.00 per share three months ago.
  • Peabody, whose coal fuels roughly one-tenth of all U.S. electricity generation and more than 2 percent of worldwide electricity, reported net income of $369 million, or $1.36 cents per share. That compares with $32.3 million, or 12 cents per share, a year earlier, when the company said higher acquisition-related debt and interest costs offset an increase in revenue. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected, on average, earnings per share of 87 cents and revenue of $1.68 billion.
  • Revenue in the most recent period rose to $1.9 billion from $1.2 billion.
  • Revenue from the company's U.S. mining operations grew to $930.7 million, up from $805.5 million a year ago. Australian revenue increased to $789 million from $307.6 million a year ago.
  • Peabody said it has 10 million to 20 million tons of U.S. production unpriced for 2009, and 75 million to 85 million tons for 2010.
  • "While there is uncertainty in today's economy, any easing of demand growth is likely to be offset by diminished global coal supply," said Richard Navarre, Peabody's president and chief commercial officer. "Supply challenges around the world and lack of capital to respond to market shortages will continue to drive a tight global supply-demand balance for coal."
Coal and fertilizer remain my 2 favorite global growth themes, based on fundamentals, which have been thrown out the window long ago. At some point, when fundamentals once again mean something, there will be a lot of money to be made on the long side in these sectors.

No position


5 comments:

wofat said...

I think there is a huge/historic buying opportunity here, but the institutions are scared/not doing anything. I agree with buying coal, but dont know mcuh about fetilizer. Bought some BTU this AM (up 12%). what are some other names to buy, fertilizer stocks or not? I have also been looking at dry bulk shipping and othe names- EV KSU ADS BUCY HSY CPB ABT...looking to buy these names in my IRA for a long term hold..Any input appreciated.

NL Thinker said...

What ABOUT gold? Mark you started a position in Kinross a while ago only to be pushed out.
How can gold not be moving up given the world is printing (i read 4.6 trillion) of currency. Also read that given the unmet demand in the street, gold prices are artificially depressed and I hear a lot of people so scared all they wanna do is invest in gold... any buying opps?

TraderMark said...

Many people who are gold bulls are completely perplexed by its action.

With both armageddon and potential huge inflation you'd think gold would be $1500 by now. I have no idea whats so wrong with it.

Wofat,
you can search old posts by using the drag down menu on the far right margin - I talk about various names in every industry. I can't give you input in terms of what you should buy for legal reasons - I just talk about my ideas and every person has to make their own decisions. Thanks

sliman said...

Coal stocks are just unreal. Even if there is a big slowdown coal is still the cheapest form of energy. I am sitting here just shaking my head on how cheap the stocks are. I bought more this week.

Michael said...

I think gold will remain flat until we see something other than global deflation. I know oil != coal != fertilizer != gold, but when people see oil falling like it is they figure that commodities and inflation are dead. In the short term they are probably right. There is a lot of deleveraging and deflation (housing) to work through, but in the long term inflation is most likely going to be huge.

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