Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Bookkeeping: Cutting the 3 Commodity Positions

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As has been the pattern for months now, it is student body left or student body right. Today it was student body into commodities so I'm going to sell into the lift this morning. Obviously the underlying business of these companies changed by 30% within 36 hours.... not. But these are essentially penny stocks now - trading in 30% ranges every week. Since the market does not discern among individual companies this is to me one position - JamesRiverPotashMosaic - going into today it made up about 12% of the portfolio and I'm reducing this to about 6%.
  1. James River Coal (JRCC) - I sold in low to mid $16s and made almost nothing as my last purchases were near $16. The stock fell as low as $12 the last few sessions but I did not buy any as I was too revulsed. Congrats if you bought near $12 as you made 33% in a matter of hours.
  2. Mosaic (MOS) - I sold in the mid $31s, offsetting some recent purchases in the mid $28s. $30 had been the "floor" a week ago, but this week a new floor was announced in the $24s - so much for the floor or any form of technical analysis working.
  3. Potash (POT) - I sold around $75 some stock recently bought in $68s.
Since these don't trade on valuation anymore, and technicals are also moot,I have no idea if selling is too early or not; I'm just following the student body who today is celebrating and rushing into commodities and the vast majority will be out by 4 PM and within 48 hours will either selling short the same stocks.

Long all names mentioned in fund; long Mosaic in personal account


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