Since January 2008 I have never had my short exposure lower than 10%... most of the past 3 months I've had it in the 22-27% range. The one day I lift the short exposure, the market decides to go down 6%. This is the irony of life :)
Down 6.6% on the S&P 500 as I type this, we now are reaching the next support level... once a support is broken (1165-1170) the market falls immediately to the next (1135)For those interested, if this level breaks, next is 1100 which takes us back to fall 2004. Then it looks to be 1055/1060 level from summer 2004.
Below that you don't want to know... 2003 was a year the market basically went straight up, which means it created very little support levels. There is a little something there around the 960s, and then below that is decade lows, below 800.
Whistle while you work... 2008 is starting to look a lot like 2002. For those of you around in 2002, you know that was a a most unkind period. If you were not around please read on [Jan 18: Bear Market? This is Nothing Kids!]
Wow - just saw Congress did not pass the bill?? No wonder the market just fell off the cliff. So this is what it is to live history. I'd much rather read about it, than live it! Yikes. I still think this thing passes as there will be deal making and arm twisting (look, please vote yes and we'll vote yes on your next earmark) It appears there was so much voter outrage and people want to look like they are on the side of the voters. And too many went that way on the first count. I still predict they'll arm twist 11 votes and get this passed. Dare they mock the market gods?? When (if) that happens let's see how the market reacts.
Ah... just analyzing stocks on their fundamentals is so quaint a notion. Can't wait for 2011 when it comes back in vogue ;)
The current Emergency Economic Stabilization Act vote tally comes at 207 for the plan, 226 against, with one vote remaining. A total of 218 votes were needed to pass the vote. House members can still change their vote, and as a result the number of yes votes did tick a few points higher.
Democrats voted 141 for, 94 against. Republicans voted 66 for, 132 against.
This is Madness. Even Constellation Energy (CEG) which has a $26.50 buyout offer from Warren B is falling to mid teens? This sums up the past year.
27 comments:
I am looking for a link to see how my Congressman voted...I am amazed that this thing didn't pass but I read one Congressman's comments (a Republican) and he basically stated that he didn't vote for the bill because he was led off the cliff by the administration once (the Iraq War) and he wasn't going to let it happen again.
*Even Constellation Energy (CEG) which has a $26.50 buyout offer from Warren B is falling to mid teens?*
It has become a non-marginable stock, at least at my broker... that explains the sales.. its a forced sale to meet margin requirements.
The DOW was down 245 when I went to pick up some stuff. By the time I got back, the bailout was off and the market was down 379. It rallied a bit..Until the parade of congressmen and women came out to explain why the deal was off. As they have been 'speechifying', I've been watching the DOW plummet, minute by minute... speech by speech. And here it is at down 675.
Can someone please ask them to stop talking. It's killing my portfolio. I mean, don't they have a golf game to attend or something. jegan
*The DOW was down 245 when I went to pick up some stuff.*
Next time, call for delivery ;) Mark learnt his lesson already about having lunch while congress is in session ....
Oh yeah.. Just noticed the little box in the corner on CNBC - WTI crude is now $95.88.. The consensus from the energy gurus is that if it breaks $98 and stays, we have broken the $98 to $110 range and we are due for another leg down. I'll be sure to pass this on to my local gas station owners.
jegan
Guy
A part of me is very happy that these guys voted the way their constituents wanted but I ask what would of happened if the vote was last year and not 5 weeks before elections
This is people trying to save their jobs in my opinion
There should be a lot of anger that it got to this. I heard a good analogy - in the US we only try to put out the fire when the couch we are sitting on finally goes up in flames. Again, medicare is going to be a doozy but I guess we worry about that another decade. And I dont know if there will be '1 event' that triggers it.
shax, thanks for the update - crazy action in what you'd think was a 'safe' stock.
jegan,
glad I don't have access to TV or near those buffoons whose 20-30 year reign of lack of leadership has taken us here. What has to be more frightening to some of them, (or most) is they don't even understand the implications.
I wonder what Ron Paul is doing right now.
Well, if this keeps up, we won't have to worry about lunch anyway... Jesus! The DOW just dropped 722... My, my, my! Time to put on my brown corderoys!
jegan
gas is down to $3.59 here but I hear in Atlanta they still have shortages. lol - what a broken infrastructure! And everything else. What a country. It is funny how it all comes to a head at once. By funny, I mean sad.
I'm guessing Ron Paul is also digging in his closet for his brown corderoys.. Or 'Depends' or whatever...
I've heard that you have to be insane to want to be President of the US.. Clearly, we live in a 'Catch 22' timeframe. (If you missed the movie, the idea was that during the Vietnam conflict, you could be sent home if you were declared insane. The 'catch 22' was that if you reported yourself as insane, then clearly you couldn't be, because insane people could not recognize insanity in themselves.) jegan
Apparantly here in ATL, we are reliant on a Gulf pipeline. Until its flowing full capacity, I am seeing stations with either no gas at all, or lines backing up 20-30 cars. Insane.
I'm getting shafted every way possible...gas, market. I will buy some shares of KY lubricant (KYJ) to me it easier for them.
Anybody make hole-wideners?
TM: I am not sure why the bill failed but I found this comment by Representative Baron Hill (Republican) very interesting:
“I have been rushed to judgment by the Bush administration before,” Hill said. “There hasn’t been enough time to evaluate the impacts this legislation would have if enacted or to consider alternatives. Congress deserves time to weigh the benefits and the potential pitfalls of borrowing this money.”
Basically, folks aren't opposed to spending the money, they just don't trust this President. I am sure the elections have a lot to do with this, and it will be interesting to see how the finger pointing and blame game goes.
lol mike, thanks for the laugh
I am simply aghast I held all these short positions for the past 200+ days and the 1 day I lightened them up was "the day". There has to be some limitation on cruel and unusual punishment.
Guy, the people hate this
calls to congress offices are running like 400:1 against. So it goes back to the question of what a "representative" does? Does he choose his own path, thinking he knows better than the people he represents. Or does he/she view his role as a reflection of his constituents.
Obviously thats how it "used" to be - now its "what lobbyist interest am I representing" and "how do I get re-elected"
I am quite shockd it did not pass - the house republicans I understand but the house democrats I thought had jumped on.
And yes, it does sound a lot like the iraq war "we need to do something, and NOW! Don't think! Just give us authority! An imminent danger"
This is the problem with the administration that cried wolf. When there is an actual emergency it sounds like just another ploy. But I am shocked. I still think they will get something passed... just might take longer. Now they will horse trade - i.e. you get my kid into this college or I get your kid into this firm to make a 6 figure salary he has no right getting or you vote for this earmark and I'll vote for this bailout. The typical junk.
looks like some 'hurt feelings' were behind it as well... lol. Gotta love how we never really graduate from 4th grade mentality. Again both sides are a disaster to me - I hope the "Centrist" party comes out someday.
Republicans blamed Pelosi's scathing speech near the close of the debate — which attacked Bush's economic policies and a "right-wing ideology of anything goes, no supervision, no discipline, no regulation" of financial markets — for the vote's failure.
"We could have gotten there today had it not been for the partisan speech that the speaker gave on the floor of the House," Minority Leader John Boehner said. Pelosi's words, the Ohio Republican said, "poisoned our conference, caused a number of members that we thought we could get, to go south."
Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., the whip, estimated that Pelosi's speech changed the minds of a dozen Republicans who might otherwise have supported the plan.
Frank said that was a remarkable accusation by Republicans against Republicans: "Because somebody hurt their feelings, they decided to punish the country."
My guess is that the calls get more supportive as the markets plunge. All these people so negative against this bill are now impacted when they look up their retirement accounts tonight. CNBC even has a poll now that shows 10% more saying it was a mistake to vote it down. The poll last week was 10% in favor of voting it down. The market has a way of changing peoples minds.
*I am simply aghast I held all these short positions for the past 200+ days and the 1 day I lightened them up was "the day".*
Cant blame you, if they voted YES, and it was a close one, the market would have been up big, and your shorts would have fried you. It was prudent to cut short exposure.
I love media polls. I love when people who 'were tricked' by the banks and 'forced' into loans they couldn't afford or read their paperwork can give cnn advice on financial decisions.
keep the sheep dumb and its amazing what you can pass behind their back for 30 years
eventually the dam bursts
truly how many members of Congress have a clue of any of the implications - we vote people in we want to have a beer with instead of best and brightest. We are sort of getting exposed.
p.s. if this is the legislative process now I see why nothing gets accomplished. The only difference is this time we are seeing it, and its in 2 weeks as opposed to the normal 5 months of wrangling to accomplish nothing.
What a zoo.
Put that $700B towards infrastructure and create a ton of jobs and then people won't need to borrow quite so much. People who work are a much happier lot.
This market is a real clusterfuck right now. I'm down 15.26% on the day, overall. WTF. I hope the Republicans appreciate what they're getting back from their Administration.
Nasty, nasty day and the futures are lower. I feel just like you tradermark. I have been sitting in mostly cash the last few monts and avoided losses. I have been patting myself on the back the whole time. When IBD declared an uptrend a few days ago, I dipped a few toes into the market (35% stocks/75%cash) and they got chewed off today. I stopeed out on all my stocks except prgo and sqnm. Even though I was still 75% cash, I lost 5% of my net worth. I feel like an idiot for jumping in too soon.
This market is punishing, I vowed to go long SDS over the weekend, and didn't because S&P opened down 1%....well I kind of left 8% of shorting gains on the table (15% with 2X leverage :( ). I was in 100% cash, but honestly, cash is king, because the market is purely based on a government, and you cannot trade the government, you just can't
I applaud you for outperforming the S&P today, not because of your short exposure, but because of your 50% cash, that is prudent. Cash is the best position, anyone who is even all short is foolish, even though they made a crapload today, because it is not investing/trading it is gambling.
This market is gambling. And that alone will take the indexes below their true fair value in my opinion which will make this plunge worse.
Someday we will look back on this day years from now, and be amazed
Mark-
Great move with the cash exposure. It feels like a lottery these days.
I was at a casino with a friend the other day - and I felt I had better odds there than in the markets.
At least you know the rules in a casino - and you know what the house edge is.
Rob
I always though GWB was the least intelligent republican they could find. Today I came to the realization he is actually the most intelligent of the bunch. Time to emigrate to singapore as long as they still have jobs available.
I cannot believe how ignorance the ordinary american people are. First, they got sold by the bankers to buy the houses they can never afford. Now, they think the bailout is for wall street firms and executives, not for themselves. Those wall street executives do NOT need bail out. They already got millions and billions of cash and are somewhere fishing or golfing right now. They don't give it a damn about this whole mess. It is the ordinary american people who have to suffer the future recession, portfolio and retirement loss.
We should get a bill to hang most of the previous wall street CEOs immediately and confiscate their asset to pay for part of the bailout.
My interpretation of our political system is we view it as a football game. It doesn't matter what the results are, what really matters is whose 'side' wins.. It's unfortunate that we seem to have lost the original attitude of our founding fathers.. Basically 'that which is best for the Union" It was George Washington for example who proposed the 2 term limit for the Presidency... And he was a shoo in for a third term after pushing back the British.
Anyway... Under our present system, not only am I now down 30% on my investments, but about 60% on my rental and probably 40% on my personal home ... Go 'Dubya' ... Now there's a real CEO!
jegan
Is the US too big to fail? Maybe it is better to let it crash.....
...rather than to try to bail it out. Probably being discussed in Japan, China, and Europe right now.
"Anyway... Under our present system, not only am I now down 30% on my investments, but about 60% on my rental and probably 40% on my personal home ... Go 'Dubya' ... Now there's a real CEO!"
It's easy to argue that all your assets that are currently 'down' were over valued to begin with. The housing bubble was a simple one to spot (especially if you lived through the internet bubble before that). It was the timing of when it would finally crack that was hard to figure out. The old 'the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid' scenario.
GWB has been a poor President overall, but he wasn't the cause of this problem (trace it back to the faulty premise that everyone should own a home and FNM/FRE), and neither McCain or Obama are the solution. As a country we need to return to sound fiscal responsibility. In order to do that there is going to be a lot of pain involved (think getting yourself out of debt, but on a country scale). Ron Paul was probably the best of the choices presented, but people don't generally like hearing the truth that he spoke (ie, your house really isn't worth X, etc...).
As far as the bailout goes, I question if it's actually needed. What will it fix? We're going to buy distressed assets at higher than firesale prices? Why? I think it was ML that put a price on them at 20c/$. Just because a seller doesn't want the only price a buyer will pay doesn't mean the gov. needs to step in. CNBC would have you think that no one can get a loan now. Well I have friends who bought a car last weekend with a loan, and another friend who is buying a house this week. Both have good credit and a down payment...who would've thought! FUD!
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