Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Fluor (FLR) to Hedge Fund Computers: The World Does Not End at $110 Oil. Or $80. Or $50.

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Have to love the Fluor (FLR) - probably had this contract sitting in their back pocket considering they just announced earnings yesterday, without mention of said contract. The market completely destroys their stock on "more fears of the future" and they come out with a $4 billion contract. Nice. Now instead of being down 12% on stellar earnings, they are only down 6%. (we consider that an up day around here) Boo Yah.
  • Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR - News) announced today that the company was awarded multiple contracts by BP America for its Whiting (Ind.) Refinery modernization project. Fluor is responsible for overall program and construction management, engineering, procurement, fabrication and construction. For this phase of the modernization project, Fluor will book $3.8 billion into backlog in the third quarter of 2008.
  • Fluor recently completed front-end engineering and design and began detailed engineering and construction in July 2008 with a projected completion date of fourth quarter of 2011.
  • When complete, the modernization project will increase the Whiting facilitys gasoline production by 1.7 million gallons per day and will equip the refinery to process increased amounts of secure Canadian crude oil.
  • Fluor spokesman Keith Stephens says the upgrade will allow the Whiting, Ind., refinery to process higher sulfur grade petroleum that for the most part is from shale in the western United States and oil sands of western Canada. (this is not necessary with oil heading back to $12 a barrel)
This sort of great news should support the stock for ... at least 2 hours. Before the computers begin the relentless selloff on the "I don't believe contracts, they will all be cancelled and who needs refineries anyways" thesis. Anyhow, it's all just a bit surreal right now. No matter what is said by these companies, the computers sell it off and their microprocessors argue "none of it matters because as the world slows ex-USA the demand for everything will falter and it will be cancelled anyhow. We are forward looking machines and know better than humans."

And so it goes. Again - fundamentals are for old fogeys. Frankly, I don't know what to buy anymore - 90% of the stuff working is based on a complete hoax that $3.25 gas will fix the US economy (driving consumers back to auto dealerships, stores, Las Vegas, and flying all over the world with their new and improved dollar - which after faltering for nearly the entire Bush presidency is up a whopping few weeks and thus is marking a new era), while simultaneously ruining the economies of every other country in the world (i.e. no global growth). Back to the dart board (blind folded of course) it is!

Long Fluor in fund; I would be long Fluor in personal account at these prices except who needs refineries anyhow

7 comments:

sliman said...

Tradermark
Lately Heebner's focus fund has been following the performance of the financials more than the resource stocks. Looks like he has changed his portfolio.

TraderMark said...

I think he made his changes over the past 10-15 days.

he started diverging about then, similar to our time frame here.

But we wont know what he owned for that time frame until the Q3 reporting period which means mid October.

He took it on the chin for the first 5-6 weeks and then seems to have thrown in the towel. Being down 20% in a month will do that to you I guess.

Ironically he is down nearly 2% today and should of been up or flat based on his old portfolio. Just a tough streak - what can you do - people who invest on fundamentals and do NOT believe everything will be dandy in the economy in a few months have very little place to put money right now.

Myself I think we have at least one very good counter trend rally here in commodities in next 1-4 weeks as the fall has been so fast and furious but unfortunately it probably needs to be sold as the charts now look like financials.

But since the selling is unrelenting I don't want to sit losing that much money every day waiting for the eventual counter trend rally.

sliman said...

I am sticking to QLD and commodities. I find it hard to believe Heebner likes financials, but it appears he is tracking that group.

jegan said...

Thanks for the heads up.. I hold CGMFX and have been unhappy, but willing to let Heebner have his run. I really don't feel very happy about the long term financials... But, I guess Heebner knows what he's doing. Personally, I expect an energy rally after the Olympics and/or after teh election.Where are you getting his portfolio.. It's hard to know what he's shorting as it doesn't show anywhere.. ]

Thx jegan ;-)

sliman said...

Honestly I am making an educated guess. Yesterday he was down almost 2%. Tech was flat and natural resources were up about 1% financials were hammered. Over the last two weeks he has been tracking more and more toward financials. He has a great record so it will be interesting.

TraderMark said...

Jegan on bottom right of margin in the blog are some favorite funds and that will update his holdings.

Must be updated with SEC quarterly and the latest one can do it is this week for the 6/30 time frame. In my opinion he has made large changes from 6/30 since his performance has started to diverge from what it was doing 3-4 weeks ago in the last 10-15 days, so we won't see those changes until the 9/30 holdings listed in mid October.

jegan said...

tradermark et al... Thanks for the reply... The problem with following Heebner is that he turns over his portfolio at an amazing rate (384% turnover per Morningstar..) and he does short a lot as well.. Just looking at his holdings one day doesn't guarantee any revelations regarding his holdings the next, nor does it include his short activities..

I'm guessing that the present results are less to do with Heebner's abandonment of commodities ... That doesn't seem to be his style...And possibly getting burned on short activities surrounding financials .. WHich just had a nice bounce.. Well... Not today..

jegan ;-)

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