Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Don Harrold on Cramer's Housing Bottom Call

Posted by TraderMark at 5:25 PM TweetThis
Thanks to a reader for pointing this out... this is one hilarious 9 minute video. Now, we all make idiotic mistakes, but this one is classic - yesterday Mr. Cramer named 10 reasons housing has bottomed. And 2 years ago he named.... well, 10 reasons housing has bottomed - such as gas prices are heading lower, commodities have topped, etc etc ;)

Classic video - and this is why CNBC, for ALL guests (not just Cramer) needs to show their past history flashing at the bottom of the screen, instead of recycling the same guests with the same "calls" so we can hear the same garbage over and over without any track record posted. It is much easier being a 'pundit' than someone who actually needs to manage money. Just ask Bill Miller over at Legg Mason Value who apparently took Cramer's 2006 call for a bottom in housing to heart and has lost an annualized 10% a year for the past 3 years, topped off by a 34% loss in the past year.

Short pundits. 9 minutes of entertainment, you just cannot find on TV.



Never heard of Don Harrold but I have now. Anyone with Ron Paul on his website is worth a look


Posted by TraderMark at 5:25 PM Comments (7) | Edit This Post | Create A New Post

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7 comments:

Sia said...

Haha, did I just hear what I thought I heard??!?!? Cramer just said that he doesn't recommend any of the home builders... even though they have bottomed. WTF? If they have bottomed, your downside is limited, why wouldn't you buy? Crazy.

August 27, 2008 6:55 PM  
TraderMark said...

I don't have a problem with him (or any pundit) being wrong. I'm wrong all the time. But for these guys to show up and never revisit their history and make a revisionist story up, is beyond compare.

That would be like me wiping out all archived posts and saying... never said buy Amlyin Pharma! :) Trina Solar? Never heard of it. In fact I've been shorting it for a year.

Etc.

August 27, 2008 6:59 PM  
Sia said...

He is just too contradictory and tries to cover his ass. "The builders have bottomed, but don't buy them!!!!". Well, if they do bottom then yay he called it, if they don't bottom well he told you not to buy, so yay he was right.

August 27, 2008 8:11 PM  
Bluedog said...

I love it. "Accountability" is not in Cramer's vocabulary.

August 27, 2008 8:46 PM  
rosesryellow2 said...

Mark,

I was watching Harrold on You Tube the other day. He was saying that silver prices were being manipulated downwards and recommended that people look into silver coins. Some precious metals are going down even though people often can't find coins to buy.

I'm, not sure what my take is on precious metals. On the one hand they have come down a lot and there is so much garbage backed by the fed that you might say the dollar has to get weaker. On the other hand, though, a crisis like this is deflationary... if not for the Fed we would be experiencing serious deflation. That might be better in the long run... Roubini/Soros and Rogers/Ron Paul have been in two camps on this, at least publicly.

Regarding Cramer... people love to mock him but...
Is he stupid or is he lights out smart and really looking out for the interests of his buddies at GS and other elite institutions? I'm not sure... but a guy that returned 24% a year every year at his hedge fund and has a Harvard background... it doesn't add up in my mind.

NYX, SHLD, BSC...how much money have his calls made...smart money?

http://tinyurl.com/59oycr

also an excellent interview(Schiff)
http://tinyurl.com/6h5yxr

August 27, 2008 9:31 PM  
rosesryellow2 said...

Well... I'm starting to form an opinion...

August 27, 2008 9:54 PM  
C.R.E.A.M. said...

roses,

Mish's blog has a worth reading write-up about the so called gold/silver price "manipulation". Long story short, people were expecting Trichet(spelling) to tighten but he did the opposite which in turn revered the short dollar long gold/silver trade. The magnitude of the move down for the metals shows you that a bunch of folks were o the wrong side of the trade. Also the fact that for every short there is a long and vice versa proves that the calls of "manipuation" are ludacris.

August 28, 2008 1:59 PM  

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