Some Evening Reading

Some interesting articles for those so inclined, that I came across over the previous week - some are relatively lengthy in duration. I highlighted some quick points in each. With the tremendous day to day (and INTRAday) movements in the markets we've been focusing more on stocks/sectors rather than the underlying economic stories of late, but we'll try to keep posting some pertinent entries of that type somewhere in the hectic mix of stock news.

1) The New York Times has a very lengthy oil story entitled 'American Energy Policy, Asleep at the Spigot' I've written many times that we are a reactionary society, not proactive - unfortunately this leaves us at the mercy of crisis after crisis ("fire fighting"); and of course fixing the window pane after it's broken is always much more expensive than protecting it in the first place. Much of the story details the back story of what was going on in Washington D.C. (i.e. inaction) during the past 20 years.

• Even (Chevron CEO) Mr. O’Reilly says that he still can’t get his head around current oil prices, which closed above $145 a barrel on Thursday, a record. “We can see how you can get to $100,” he says. “At $140, I just don’t know how to explain it. We’re surprised.”
• For the rest of the country, the feeling is more like shock. As gasoline prices climb beyond $4 a gallon, Americans are rethinking what they drive and how and where they live. Entire industries are reeling — airlines and automakers most prominent among them — and gas prices have emerged as an important issue in the presidential campaign.
• Outside the thriving oil patch, it makes for a bleak economic picture. But it didn’t have to be this way. Over the last 25 years, opportunities to head off the current crisis were ignored, missed or deliberately blocked, according to analysts, politicians and veterans of the oil and automobile industries. What’s more, for all the surprise at just how high oil prices have climbed, and fears for the future, this is one crisis we were warned about. Ever since the oil shortages of the 1970s, one report after another has cautioned against America’s oil addiction.

2) BusinessWeek has yet another housing crisis cover story - if you've been reading the blog for a few months this is all old news, but it is always interesting to see the "come to Jesus" moments by analysts and pundits in these types of stories, after months/quarters/years of denial. Generally we like to see cover stories on economic subjects since by the time something hits critical mass it's priced in. However, BusinessWeek ran a similar cover in January 2008 and that did not exactly mark the bottom in housing. We'd rather see it in Time Magazine or something of that sort and frankly the mess is so huge this time it might take about 10 magazine covers.

• The housing crisis is entering a new and frightening stage. The risk for the financial system and the economy is that the price drop, already horrifying, will start feeding on itself. When home values fall low enough, hard-pressed homeowners become less able or less willing to keep paying their mortgages. That forces lenders to repossess homes and then dump them back on the market at fire-sale prices, which depresses prices further and leads to even more foreclosures.
• Efforts by the private sector and government to stop the slide before it gets out of control haven't done the job. Poorly designed mortgage securities rife with conflicts of interest, as well as legal disputes over priority between creditors, are forcing many homes into foreclosure needlessly, accelerating the market decline.
• "The depth of pain is not being registered in D.C.,"

3) BusinessWeek with another story on Wind - The Power, the Promise, the Business

• Ferrell is one of the fathers of Kansas wind farming. He ran through three different developers before getting the operation going on his land. There was stiff opposition to wind farming in the Flint Hills from preservationists concerned about marring the landscape and from politicians tied to the coal industry, but, finally, Ferrell had his way.
• Some call the vast American prairie the Saudi Arabia of wind, capable of producing enough electricity to meet the entire country's needs—assuming there's the will to harness it.
• In the U.S., more than 25,000 turbines produce 17 gigawatts of electricity-generating capacity, enough to power 4.5 million homes. Total capacity rose 45% last year and is forecast to nearly triple by 2012. Right now, only 1% of the country's electricity comes from wind, but government and industry leaders want to see that share hit 20% by 2030, both to boost the supply of carbon-free energy and to create green-collar jobs. (why we need to wait 22 years is beyond me)
• Such a transformation won't come easily. While much of America's wind energy is in the Midwest, demand for electricity is on the coasts. And the electrical grid, designed decades ago, can't move large quantities of electricity thousands of miles. There's plenty of wind off the coasts, but it's both expensive to harness and controversial; not-in-my-backyard sentiment has slowed some of the most high-profile projects. (oh that's why)

4) BusinessWeek tells us India's economy is hitting a wall. And I've got the Indian bank stocks to prove it. Thankfully we had some excellent returns from this country in the fall and early winter but it's been a "house of pain" since. But it does show you how quickly things can change, both reality and "assumptions".

• Just six months ago, India was looking good. Annual growth was 9%, corporate profits were surging 20%, the stock market had risen 50% in 2007, consumer demand was huge, local companies were making ambitious international acquisitions, and foreign investment was growing.
• In the past month, India has joined the list of the wounded. The country is reeling from 11.4% inflation, large government deficits, and rising interest rates. Foreign investment in India's stock market is fleeing, the rupee is falling, and the stock market is down over 40% from the year's highs. Most economic forecasts expect growth to slow to 7%—a big drop for a country that needs to accelerate growth, not reduce it. "India has gone from hero to zero in six months,"
• Much of the crisis India faces today could have been avoided by skillful planning. India imports 75% of its oil to meet demand, which have grown exponentially as its economy expands. The government also subsidizes 60% of the price of such fuels as diesel. In 2007, when inflation was a low 3%, economists such as Standard & Poor's Subir Gokarn urged New Delhi to start cutting subsidies. Instead, the populist ruling Congress government spent $25 billion on waiving loans made to farmers and hiking bureaucrats' salaries. (sound familiar? one must really wonder if governments worldwide were reduced by 90% in size and stature how much more efficient markets would be - their self serving and short sighted decision making are the handicap for many a country)
• A June 16 report by Goldman Sachs' (GS) Jim O'Neill and Tushar Poddar, Ten Things for India to Achieve Its 2050 Potential, is a grim reminder that India has fallen to the bottom of the four BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) in its growth scores, due largely to government inertia. The report states that India's rice yields are a third those of China and half of Vietnam's. While 60% of the country's labor force is employed in agriculture, farming contributes less than 1% to overall growth.

5) Another long predicted event - the center of all things American consumerism, Las Vegas, is down and out per The Independent. Think of Vegas as one big Whole Food Markets organic milk, roasting in the back of a Hummer. All good in 2005/2006. Not so good without the house ATM as a crutch for Americans to use as piggy bank. And the higher the price of things we must have (non discretionary) go, the lower the price of things discretionary must go. Because as "good news" (as touted by everyone but actual workers) - the current US worker will not be getting the "wage inflation" of his brother from the 70s. So as the pie stays flat or slowly growing, something needs to give. Everything discretionary. [Stuff I've Been Negative on Since Last Fall] It's a slow process that is working itself up the food chain of the American income strata...

• Because America's most outrageous city is facing a growing multitude of problems, and they all boil down to a single, unavoidable point: right now, far too little happens in Vegas, because not enough people are actually staying there.
• The onset of global slowdown, high petrol prices, and a nation-wide housing slump is spelling disaster for a town that owes every aspect of its wealth ... to its ability to inspire free-spending hedonism.
• With Americans cutting back on luxuries, and the price of transport rocketing, the so-called "Vegas vacation" is facing the axe. This week, as the nation celebrated Independence Day, major hotels were taking stock of a fall in all-important room occupancy rates from their usually impressive 95 per cent levels to nearer 80 per cent.
• More worryingly, new figures showed gambling revenue has also dropped – a further 3 per cent this month – starting a price war between worried firms anxious to lure punters back. Hotel rooms, which last year averaged $130 each, now go for less than $100 (£50).
• Las Vegas Sands, which controls the Venetian and Palazzo resorts on the famous neon-lit Strip that runs through a "miracle mile," has dropped below $50 a share, a third of its value last September. MGM is at $28, from over $100 a year ago. Wynn resorts, owned by the ebullient billionaire Steve Wynn – a Texan version of Donald Trump – neared $70, from almost $180 last year.
• Local bankruptcies have quadrupled. The property market, which rode the wave of a boom for most of the past decade is now below its peak by anything from a quarter to a third (depending on whose figures you believe), while Nevada now boasts, if that is the right word, the nation's highest foreclosure rate.