Friday, June 20, 2008

World Population to Hit 7 Billion by 2012

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We're on our way to 9 Billion humans by 2042. (I use 2050 as a nice round number, but that figure actually should be coming nearly a decade earlier than I reference) The affects of this are many, and we are seeing on the bleeding edge of this coming "World of Shortages" and I do believe a permanently higher inflation rate. But I say we blame the speculators...

Today we sit at 6.7 Billion and the latest projections have us on course for 7 Billion within 5 years. That's 300 million more people, or a bit less than the entire United States coming online by 2012. Remember for all the hubub around China, they have a "1 child" law, so in due time India will surpass them in total population. Again folks it is not just the number of people, but the number of people who are now acting like "poor Americans" - we call them middle class in other countries - they dare do things like consume energy and not farm for themselves - hence they strain the world economy. It would be far better for us Americans if 95% of those people were continuing to live in abject poverty - then we could go on consuming 25% of all the world's resources.

Interesting somewhat scientific/somewhat guesswork stat of the day: If every human on the planet consumed resources like 300M Americans, we'd need 6 Earths.
  • The world's population will reach 7 billion in 2012, even as the global community struggles to satisfy its appetite for natural resources, according to a new government projection.
  • There are 6.7 billion people in the world today. The United States ranks third, with 304 million, behind China and India, according to projections released Thursday by the Census Bureau.
  • The world's population surpassed 6 billion in 1999, meaning it will take only 13 years to add a billion people. (that's alarming)
  • By comparison, the number of people didn't reach 1 billion until 1800, said Carl Haub, a demographer at the Population Reference Bureau. It didn't reach 2 billion until 130 years later.
  • Haub said that medical and nutritional advances in developing countries led to a population explosion following World War II. Cultural changes are slowly catching up, with more women in developing countries going to school and joining the work force. That is slowing the growth rate, though it is still high in many countries.
  • The global population is growing by about 1.2 percent per year. The Census Bureau projects the growth rate will decline to 0.5 percent by 2050.
  • There is no consensus on how many people the Earth can sustain, said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. He said it depends on how well people manage the Earth's resources.
  • There are countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East where the average woman has more than six children in her lifetime. In Mali and Niger, two African nations, women average more than seven children.
So obviously the problem is women who stay at home, not speculators. If Senator Lieberman would only outlaw women that stay at home (force them to work), than obviously prices for food and oil would drop. Even better if he forced that on women worldwide because that appears to be the culprit... stay at home moms. And that folks is the current logic of Washington D.C. today.

Just keep your eye on the prize if in fact commodities correct as they are WELL OVERDUE to do, and everyone points to the end of the bull run... it almost sounds believable but this "truth" they roll out every 2-3 months about commodities, is coming from the same people who brought you the "kitchen sink quarter in financials" last fall, the "subprime is contained" in spring 2007, and "housing is only 4.5% of GDP so what's all the fuss" in summer 2007. We'll be adding "it appears the Federal Reserve is VERY aggressive on inflation" next week because they'll add 2 sentences into their statement - because as we all know, words defeat world population trends. At least in CNBC world.

[Mar 24: New Limits to Growth Revive Malthusian Fears]
[Mar 22: The Long Term in Commodities]

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