What to Do with Apple (AAPL)...

This one is a tough call... earnings are tonight and it is one of the most widely watched stocks nowadays. Last quarter, the fund took a hit when the lemmings did their normal overreaction to conservative guidance. The thing is, Apple ALWAYS is conservative - but some quarters people don't care, and others they panic flee. Just hard to game the reaction; and last time around an overweight stake did not do the body good. [Jan 22: Apple Beats by $0.14, Issues Typical Conservative Guidance]

I do have a 2.5% stake and am just going to sit through this round. Normally, I'd cut back and last quarter's experience should make me cut back as well, but I think the iPod "weakness" is now something that is better understood and the Mac power is going to overwhelm everything else [Mar 20: Apple Mac Sales up 60% in February]. I fully expect a nice beat BUT again, people love to find one minor line item to get antsy about. Again, people focus on the bells and whistles (iPod, iPhone) when the true strength is the computers. The migration from PC world to Apple world is on, big time. Also, I've been doing a lot of reading about this new iChat feature which is instant messenger with video - basically what every preteen, teen, and 20 year old lives to do all day, chat on the computer. Yet another quiet homerun for Apple.

The other bonus, Apple is a stealth international play (45% of sales) - weak dollar baby. I do expect another lowball guidance as they always do but we'll see how the lemmings react. Ignore all the noise and watch the growth in the computer lines... that's the true strength here...

Long Apple in fund; no personal position (might change later in the day)