Monday, March 17, 2008

Technicals Simply not Working Today

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The Plunge Protection Team appears to be working very hard today. Today, we had a triple bottom break of 1270, MULTIPLE times throughout the day and each time we rebounded off... 1260? Makes no sense. Simply put, when the index reaches the same point on the 3rd try (1270) and then falls through, the end is near and another leg down begins. I actually bet against this happening in early January and paid the price with 2 weeks of severe losses in the fund. Now, the exact same thing happened today, and the market rebounded 25 S&P points? For those of you who don't follow charts, see above to see what I mean... early January we went to 1270, last week we went to 1270, and today was the "triple bottom" that "broke" as we fell below 1270.... multiple times. Yet nothing happened -> instead we go up. I haven't seen something like this ...that I can recall. I am sure it has happened, I just don't remember when.

This triple bottom break is an exact replica of early January action and should of precipitated another leg down. Looking at an intraday chart this happened over and over today, but we were "saved" each time by massive buying once we got to 1260. I wonder by whom? Anyhow it is simply not a market where things learned over 2 decades are applying - market forces are not being allowed to play out, so frankly I give up on the guessing when things that work year after year, suddenly have no meaning.
I've been whipsawed severely today, but in light of the action I've had to reverse course yet again and I've lightened up my short exposure, since what "should" of happened, did not happen. So if we are dictated to go up by the powers that be, I will go along for the ride. Can't fight the government and win all the time I suppose. For now, I'll just shake my head in wonderment.

1 comments:

cm202bc said...

FWIW, If I recall correctly 1260-ish was the premarket low the day of the Jan surprise cuts, so maybe they were trading off that. Certainly can't expect the technicals to dictate a fall in the face of huge Fed action the next day tho.

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