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Monday, March 24, 2008

Fund My Mutual Fund Stock Invitational - 1st Round

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To get into the spirit of the season, let's have our own "Stock Invitational". The folks over at Fast Money have created a stock pool of 64 teams, so I am curious how this blog's reader base will pick among the selections.

The full pool can be found here.

I will put up 3 polls a day to try to get through the first round relatively quickly and leave each poll up 24 hours - whomever polls higher moves on; and we'll go all the way into the final pairing.
Today we have 3 first round matchups in the "Technology" bracket. I'll edit this post to list all 1st round winners ....

Technology Region
(1) HP v (16) Western Digitial - HP wins 76%/23% in a rout
(8) Corning v (9) Intel - in a nailbiter the 2 firms tied in regulation with 24 votes each. The commissioner had to come in during overtime and give the split decision to ... Corning.
(5) Microsoft v (12) IBM - our first cheating incident and clear NCAA violation where IBM tried to send out Intel to take on heavyweight MSFT. After an hour or so of slugging it out, the commissioner realized the issue and sent IBM in; in a surprise (but every tournament has a 12 seed beating a 5 seed, why not us?) the Apple faithful came to IBMs defense and the champion of the 1980s pushed out the perennial champion of the 1990s in the "geezer bowl" - 52 to 47%.
(4) Oracle v (13) Comcast - in a rout Oracle comes away with a 82% share win. How Comcast was able to get a 13th seed is beyond me; I assume insiders have pictures of the commissioner in an Eliot Spitzer situation! Way too generous of a seed; I was thinking something closer to 17th for this degrading business model.

(6) EMC v (11) Verizon - our second tie in 2 days; 23 votes a piece. Cmon people, stop leaving these decisions in the hands of the commissioner. Simply on the basis of the underdog status, and that crazy 6th man from the mean playgrounds of NYC named FiOS, I am going to play the Verizon card. Have to respect the groundswell of support for the lower seed.
(3) Apple v (14) RIMM - in a brutal seeding for Research in Motion (14th?), Apple wins with 2/3rd majority decision - I somehow think the easy conference RIMM came out of (Canada) must of led to this low seeding; their strength of schedule did not work out well in the RPI ratings - hence they are now unfairly RIP after this tough 1st round matchup. Apple is like Ron Paul, potentially unbeatable in online voting with their horde of fans.
(7) Cisco v (10) Dell - another strange high seeding with Dell at #10 - what is this? 2001? Cisco blows the doors off the stadium with a 90 to 10% trouncing.
(2) Google v (15) AT&T - new school v old school. Ma Bell looked her age - no contest, Google with 80%.

Health/Home
(1) Pepsi v (16) Hormel - SPAM lovers were valiant, generating 22% positive returns for Hormel, which ain't too shabby for a #16! Pepsi advances...
(8) McDonalds v (9) Disney - I thought this would be a close battle but perhaps I underestimated the waist lines of my readers ;) McDonalds beats the Mouse in a trouncing with 75% of the votes. I guess theme park visitations might be suffering in the coming year, or be filled with more foreigners than Americans!
(5) Altria v (12) Pfizer - in the battle of sickness vs health - sickness wins 65/35%; just can't beat that reoccuring revenue stream for Altria
(4) Walmart v (13) Target - Walmart wins this one easily 70/30%; how quickly things change - if this were 2005 and the house ATM was roaring Target would not only not be a 13th seed but a tournament favorite. Now in the pooring of America scenario they are a first round victim.

(6) Coca Cola v (11) Macys - the tournament's first shutout! 100% for Coca Cola - how Macy's gets an 11 seed in this economy is beyond me.
(3) P&G v (14) Bud - Toilet paper wins out over beer 70/30%, it's P&G
(7) Merck v (10) UnitedHealth - 2 companies the commissioner does not follow, Merck wins 60/40%
(2) J&J v (15) Home Depot - the Commissioner felt sorry for Home Depot and threw his vote towards it, otherwise this would be a shutout. Well in reality it was our 2nd shutout of the tournament - 100% for J&J. No one believes the 2nd half housing boom except me???

Financials
(1) Berkshire v (16) Ambac - commissioner grants a first round by to Berkshire. Ambac? Seriously now.
(8) US Bancorp v (9) Bank of America - another tie. Since this tournament is a focus on the next 12 months, and Bank of America loaded itself up with Countrywide toxic loans I am going to have to rule for Warren Buffet's US Bancorp
(5) Mastercard v (12) American Express - no contest, Mastercard with no credit risk comes in @ 86%.
(4) China Life v (13) Wells Fargo - China Life wins 60 to 40% over valiant Wells Fargo.

(6) Simon Property v (11) Lehman - Simon Property by a nose 53 - 47%
(3) Goldman Sachs v (14) Washington Mutual - commissioner bye granted to Goldman Sachs
(7) NYSE v (10) AIG - NYSE in a romp over the insurance giant - who likes insurance anyhow? 90 to 10%
(2) JPMorgan v (15) Citigroup - in a squeaker, JPMorgan with 94% of the votes. The Fed intervened to make sure it was not any closer. JPMorgan is going to be hard to beat with interventions and backstops each and every round.

Industrials
(1) United Technology v (16) Sunpower - the solar conference did not send it's best candidate to the big dance yet still garnered 41% of the votes - tournament champion First Solar would of been the better candidate! UTX wins.
(8) Valero v (9) Exxon - in a mild upset Exxon wins 59% to 41% - unless those crack spreads fall its hard for Valero to get traction
(5) Potash v (12) Boeing - the Commissioner's darkhorse to take the whole tournament if it can get past the tough matchup in the 2nd round, Potash wins with a resounding 85%. This game started 45-0 in the first half but Boeing at least put up some fight once the game was decided
(4) Freeport v (13) ADM - another tournament stud Freeport whitewashes the much hated ethanol play with a 94% win.

(6) Alcoa v (11) PG&E - in a sleepy affair Alcoa (yawn) wins with 58% of the vote
(3) Toyota v (14) General Motors - No love from the home court advantage - Toyota with 82%
(7) 3M v (10) Caterpillar - CAT with 3/4 of the votes
(2) BHP v (15) DuPont - Mining giant runs away with it @ 87%... BHP

2 comments:

T-Rader said...

hey michigan boy, you got intel listed twice. this ain't the wolverine basketball program you know. you can't get away with that kind of stuff :)

TraderMark said...

Doh!
I must have a secret lust for Intel although I never owned it.
Thanks for the heads up

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