Friday, February 22, 2008

Markets Rally on Ambac (ABK) Rescue Plan

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I was wondering what rescue plan was leaking out, when the market turned on a dime and jumped 100+ pts in a minute. Looks like even a hint of potential end to this bond insurer mess is enough to get the Kool Aid running.

Banks rescuing Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK) could announce a plan as soon as Monday or Tuesday, CNBC's Charles Gasparino said on Friday.

The details of the deal are still being worked out and the plan may fall through, Gasparino said.

So, just like the markets rally on each Fed cut, each Paulson mortgage plan, each SIV rescue plan, each intervention rumor, etc etc and etc - we'll let it play out, and then once the euphoria is gone people will realize the mess is still all out there. So I expect any rallies from this type of news to be relatively short lived in duration...

With that said, I've been decreasing short exposure this afternoon as I wrote I would do - just by a function of discipline going into each weekend in this treacherous period. Even positions that should work (short the worst of breed sectors) can work against you by the machinations happening behind the scenes. So I'm moving a good chunk allocation back from "short" to "cash" to allow for potential Kool Aid pool party.

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