Thursday, February 28, 2008

Bookkeeping: Cutting Apple (AAPL) on Rally

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This is purely a technical call on Apple (AAPL). I am cutting back my position to around 0.3% of fund and selling near $128.60, as the stock is rallying "up" to resistance of the 20 day moving average (roughly $129). This still remains a broken chart to me, and a potential to see sub $110 in the near future. So I'll look to rebuy at a lower price, if offered.

If I am wrong, and this is part of a broader tech rally, than so be it. I'd have to see Apple north of its 50 day moving average ($145) to believe this is a true move with staying power. So I'll either buy north of that level or back down where I think Apple could be headed, sub $110. Anything between those 2 levels, to me, is simply a "white noise" trading range - good for traders, but useless for investors. I do find the value compelling here; again simply a technical trade in this case. I also find the obsession with iPhone misplaced; this is a Mac story.
  • Shares of Apple Inc. rose Thursday morning after the iPod maker reiterated expectations to sell 10 million iPhones in 2008, leading an analyst to maintain a top rating.
  • Goldman Sachs analyst David C. Bailey met with Apple's operating chief, Tim Cook, at the Goldman Sachs Technology Symposium Wednesday, and said that growth opportunities remain for the company.
  • "While there was no breaking news on the financial side, the meeting reinforces our view that Apple's industry-leading product cycles should help it overcome softer seasonality and sets the stock up for a strong second half of the year," Bailey said in a client note.

  • Sales of Apple's Macintosh computers should continue to outpace the overall personal computer market, and the iPod Touch should help improve the music product line's revenue even though iPod unit growth is dipping, he said.

Long Apple in fund; no personal position


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