Monday, February 11, 2008

Another Constructive Day in the Dry Bulk Shippers

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Mentioned these names last evening [Dry Bulk Shippers - Time to Get Back In?] - both names (Diana Shipping, DryShips) I've targeted are up around 6-7% today. So I grit my teeth watching. I think it still takes 1 more day to confirm an uptrend but they have made quite a huge move in a short time as well, so it's a tough decision.

Diana Shipping peaked just over $30 on first day of February which is where it is right at this moment - I'd like to see it go higher and create a new high. DryShips, identical commentary at $78. Since I am not daytrading these names and want to have a medium term position, I want to see a confirmation of a trend upward - we've now cleared the 50 day moving average in both with today's movement, so a clearance of a recent high would do the trick. In a normal bull market I'd be a willing buyer here, but in this unstable mess I'm still having a hard time pressing buy. :) Buying any former momentum names in this market, is like trusting a significant other who cheated on you - just hard to put any faith in them to stay faithful for more than a few days. ;) Notice both names cleared the 50 day moving average in early February as well, before being beaten back quickly into submission; another reason for some caution.

Last, I'm also debating whether I might as well simply stick with coal names to play the same trend. So a lot of thoughts on this group that conflict with each other. The coal move has been tremendous, and as much as I love this group long term if we get another day like this tomorrow I need to start cutting back a bit. Some of these names have jumped 15-20%+ in just a few sessions. The type of gains the market has been taking back quickly. But it was a nice day and good to see companies with good fundamentals rewarded again; almost like a normal functioning market.

No position (very close)

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