Earnings Preview Wednesday

It appears we have entered the era of late August, September - where each bad data point is cheered by the market because it meant (Kool Aid!) more Fed cuts. We'll see how long it lasts. We have 2 long, cold months until the next Fed meeting after this month. Will we even make it to Valentine's Day before more clamoring for cuts begins? The folks in NYC are drug addicts... they need their cuts. As you can see I am near to my "utmost caution" allocation that I was hoping to get to by this time leading to the Fed meeting. 15% cash and >20% short exposure.

Altria (MO) - big MO! Let's see if they have anothing more to add about the Philips Morris International spin off - which I'd like to get my grubby hands on. After struggling the past week during "opposite time" (worst of breed rocks, best of breed stinks), the stock made a decent surge today.

Amazon.com (AMZN) - obviously best at what they do, but I could never get behind that valuation. And in this type of market where anything of remotely high valuation gets sand blasted, I wouldn't want to risk it. Anything remotely related to tech has been a disaster of late. Until I see Microsoft (MSFT) rewarded for it's great news and (in theory) "safe haven" status, it is hard for me to get back on the tech bandwagon.

Boeing (BA) - don't look now, but Mark is suddenly interested in this beaten down giant who is part of a worldwide growth secular growth market. In a better market, I'd be interested and I can see adding this later in the year.

Covance (CVD) - the last of the 3 major players in US drug research outsourcing. As I said, I looked at this group 8 weeks ago, deemed them to expensive. I looked again this weekend - still found them expensive, although I think it's a great sector.

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) - just has been a long term dog of the sector, constantly on the cusp of raging success and profitability. One day.... maybe. I suppose it will affect the solar names, but I see no reason to pile into a name like this on hope, when leadership companies are producing day in and day out. But we have to watch it since investors treat solar stocks like a monolith - they are either all good or all bad. One day that will stop. I hope.

Kellogg (K), Kraft (KFT) - more CEOs who are going to try to tell us they see (haha) inflation or something. Silly CEOs.. there is no inflation out there. It's all in your imagination. More Fed cuts by the way! NYC and the top 1% must be saved! Go cry about your inflation to the bottom 60%.

Legg Mason (LM) - asset manager who wishes they were Blackrock (BLK)

Merck (MRK) - one of the biggest producers of Washington DC lobbyists. I also believe they run a side business somehow relating to drugs.

Pulte Homes (PHM) - a company I actually like along with Ryland (RYL). And maybe Toll Brothers (TOL) especially if stuffing Freddie and Fannie permanently with $700K+ mortgages is the wave of the future. When I turn to homebuilders permanently, expect these to be the names.

Starbucks (SBUX) - yawn. New CEO who was old CEO will promise the comeback of the century. Rebate checks will allow Americans to buy 30 lattes each. Go look at a chart of Dell (DELL) and remember the last time a new CEO who was the old CEO came around. Yawn.

UPS (UPS) - always interested in the bellweather transport companies commentary - probably they will say "things have slowed down, it looks like it will be slow next quarter - what's that? News flash, Fed cuts rates! Never mind - BOOM TIMES by Memorial Day!"

Long none of the above