Thursday, October 18, 2007

A Quiet Day - Doing some Small Buying

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It's been a pretty quiet day (hence I have been watching parrots dance - I do love this link for some reason, play.blogger.com which shows you every picture uploaded to the blogger universe) - not much on my radar has swung a ton up or down, aside from LDK Solar (LDK) which fell yet again on yet another rehash of the same story.

I generally only mention 'sizeable' trades (those over say $5K or more) in the blog, but I usually make a few smaller buys/sales each day in the $3K range, such as today I added a small piece to Mastercard (MA) following up on the buys the past 2 days. I want to deploy some cash on the long side and get my cash position down a bit, so I have been trying to pick here and there with buys, and now have gotten cash back to under 15%. I was hoping for some minor pullback in Apple (AAPL) but it has enormous strength ahead of next week's earnings.

Aside from selling down some short ETFs ahead of Google earnings today, and the moves I mentioned earlier I have
  • Continued to top off my CF Industries (CF) fertilizer play ahead of earnings (which I assume will be coming in 2 weeks or so; I don't see an announcement on their website). While CF Industries is 80% nitrogen and only 20% phosphates, the fundamentals for the whole industry just look phenomenal - we know potash is flying, we know phosphates is flying, and from last quarter nitrogen was doing fine as well; it is just a matter of degree. The chart for CF Industries is looking mighty similar to Mosaic (MOS) ahead of its earnings, and we know how that turned out. A break of $78 on CF and it should be off to the races as the technical traders will jump in.
  • I added a bit more to most of the India basket I mentioned Tuesday. Still wary on this foray as any hiccup in China will send all emerging markets tumbling but at this point all dips in China are being bought as the bubble expands exponentially.
  • I added a bit of infrastructure exposure, in the shape of Foster Wheeler (FWLT) and KBR (KBR). Foster Wheeler just is not pulling back in the face of this 'sell off', and is still cheap compared to its peer group, whereas KBR has pulled back a bit at least; now in the $41s vs $45 last week. I am still very underweight this sector compared to how I was positioned in August, and still hope for one of these companies to hiccup in their next earnings and cause a pullback.
Again these are smaller moves and on a more busy day I wouldn't even mention them - I am still struggling to find good entry points as the strong sectors show very little selling while the weak sectors do sell off - which is good as a stock picker - it shows the market is differentiating instead of the "everything must go up" or "everything must go down" mentality we've had since early August. Generally stocks that hold up so well in any market weakness will be the ones to run when the market shows more health so hence my additions. Judging from that, Apple might be looking at $200 next week.

Again, I would not be surprised by a Google selloff, just due to the tremendous run it has had, and everyone expecting the world from it. In fact, I hope we get a nice disappointment so stocks sell off and I can find some stuff in the bargain bin.

Long all names in fund; long CF Industries, Mosaic, and LDK Solar in personal account


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