Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Adding to FMC Technologies (FTI) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV) for same reasons as CLB

Everything I just wrote about CLB, please feel free to apply to FTI/NOV. I established positions in all 3 when the fund was created, and now all 3 have traded essentially in a group and pulled back to their 50 day moving averages.

FTI 07 est: $4.31
FTI 08 est: $5.25
22% growth

At $86 it trades 20x 2007 estimates for a company that is growing 20-25% a year.
Also notice 08 estimates trend
90 days ago $5.03
30 days ago $5.08
7 days ago $5.26
(sound familiar?)

NOV 07 est: $7.17
NOV 08 est: $8.62
20% growth

At $112 it trades 15.6x 2007 estimates for a company growing 20-30% a year.
Also notice 08 estimates trend
90 days ago $7.25
60 days ago $7.40
7 days ago $8.62

Can you say 3 peas in a pod? CLB, NOV, FTI

Remember, each dollar that goes out of your pocket and into the gas tank is a dollar that needs to end up somewhere. It is going to integrated oil companies/countries that are paying these 3 companies to make their wells more efficient or make the search for new sources of crude easier.

While the market may mark them down if oil goes to $65 or heck $55 - the story stays the same. China and India are entering the 1st world and their populations use a tiny fraction of the energy 1st world countries do. If they even reach 30-40% of our energy usage in the next 5-10 years, that's a lot more energy sources we need to be finding.

No positions

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