Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Someone Needs to Dig Out Joy Global (JOYG)

Mark,The Cash and short exposure will pay off I be...

2008-09-04T00:00:00.000-04:00

Mark,

The Cash and short exposure will pay off I believe. There aren't too many people that I know who think that anything more than a bear rally is likely on the upside. The election xmas 'rally' that started on the Naz has been /was so far pathetic. When commodities sell off and the rest of the market also sells off that is not a bullish sign either.

Also I meant forced short covering not short selli...

2008-09-03T21:32:00.000-04:00

Also I meant forced short covering not short selling for the refiners. I was trying to post quickly to get back to what I was doing but that obviously doesn't work

Actually it is not new. We had the exact same sit...

2008-09-03T21:30:00.000-04:00

Actually it is not new. We had the exact same situation happen August 2007. Crazy moves and liquidation forced selling. The difference was it was across the board whereas now there are things going up as people rotate

I too have been waiting for a clear the deck moment as I'm set up to absorb that and in fact benefit from it with high cash and high short exposure. Instead the market muddles along sideways and my hedges mostly work against me. Market is funny that way.

I have been looking at this market with some degre...

2008-09-03T21:29:00.000-04:00

I have been looking at this market with some degree of sarcasm when looking at the fact that earnings do not seem to matter.

Mark,I haven't seen this kind of fear among big in...

2008-09-03T21:25:00.000-04:00

Mark,

I haven't seen this kind of fear among big institutions in a long time.

Ospraie is freakin' people out. Who is next mentality...

Commodities especially were highly leveraged and were considered a safe haven because of earnings. The best commodity in terms of earnings is potash but does that matter?

I have been looking at this market with some degree of sarcasm due to the fact that since earnings do not seem to matter. However, with a market this bad I am starting to change my stance on this. It's one thing when solid stocks get sold because of sector rotation... it's another when they get sold because the bank is doing margin calls.

How much of the money in commodity names is fake... that is leveraged... ?

Does it matter that companies like POT are cheap relative to earnings estimates that, unlike many, will hold up? Not when big money needs to get their money out or else... or are afraid they are the next ones to get hit.

On the flip side the companies that did poorly when commodities were up, such as the refiners, are facing the opposite phenomenon... fear driven or forced short-selling.

Prechter, the big champion of Elliot Wave Theory, and others, think the top to commodities is already in and we may have a long way to go from here.

Somewhere here I can almost feel a huge clear-the-decks kind of day coming in the market.

Mark, Hopefully you've got some refiners tucked a...

2008-09-03T16:11:00.000-04:00

Mark,

Hopefully you've got some refiners tucked away somewhere. That WNR is kicking some butt. In case you missed that one, check out DK. Another refiner that will do you well. Probably the last low risk chance to get on that boat. Airlines look great, watch LCC at key support areas, Inverse H&S anyone. Last tip of the day, keep your eye on the small cap semis. I know, I know, the fundies suck, the charts suck, hell they probably are all going BK. I think I've heard that story before! KLIC !)