Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Bookkeeping: Cutting Some Cummins (CMI) & Mosaic (...

whoah.. i didnt even see that! I picked this one...

2008-04-30T15:31:00.000-04:00

whoah.. i didnt even see that! I picked this one up a few weeks back, just trying to find some way to diversify.. its been a bit of a sleeper until today.

hmmm... let me try something else..

ISRG!!!

GFA impressive. I did double the stake Monday as ...

2008-04-30T15:14:00.000-04:00

GFA impressive. I did double the stake Monday as I wrote.

I was hoping it would slowly grow to $40 so I could add on strength but its been a rocket ship today. Very nice.

re: banks6-8% growth is not really my thingJust re...

2008-04-30T13:50:00.000-04:00

re: banks
6-8% growth is not really my thing

Just remaining patient; have my buy list waiting and price points. By mid May any "strong dollar" move will be over and reality back.

It is getting very hard to find something to buy r...

2008-04-30T13:40:00.000-04:00

It is getting very hard to find something to buy right now. I do want to scale into commodities, but there is something to be said for a little diversity. Even my non commodity positions trade like them to some extent. I'm still liking some Latin America names. GFA doing nicely today. I keep hoping for it to pull back actually, so I can pick up some more, but it doesnt want to cooperate.

It is hard to find things to get behind, at least in the short term. But I find that when I have to look this hard, it's usually telling my to just stay heavy in cash. I'm actually up to 75% cash due to my confusion right now.

Have you considered canadian banks?

that should read: there has not been a close above...

2008-04-30T12:56:00.000-04:00

that should read: there has not been a close above 72.92 as of yet

7 weeks ago I had written about the Dollar Index (...

2008-04-30T12:55:00.000-04:00

7 weeks ago I had written about the Dollar Index (symbol: $DXY); at the time I said the down trend would end for now (and it has) and that prices would trade in the range defined by the highs and lows of that particular weekly price bar; the high was 72.92 and the low was 70.70. There has yet to be a close below this high price level, so I am trying to figure out what all the angst is about, and even if there is a close over this weekly high, I doubt the bounce will matter for much.

I'm having major difficulties finding things to bu...

2008-04-30T12:28:00.000-04:00

I'm having major difficulties finding things to buy now

Retailers and financials have already run in anticipation of rebate checks/end of "weak dollar" blah blah - do you buy and pray that no one notices the middle class is being destroyed?

Any commodity play is in danger since everything outside of corn and crude is rolling over

Any weak dollar multinational should in theory sell off based on the "end of the weak dollar" (I mean can people really say its bad for commodities but good for multinationals with a straight face? - it is EITHER OR)

That leaves tech which aside from 3-4 names has no secular growth. So I guess I could go to a 30% stake in Apple... but that's about all I have to offer as a potential buy now.

We'll just have to see how long this "strong dollar" nonsense carries us. Once it peters out, I'll be going back to the same portfolio of old...

I love the herd thinking... "a strong" dollar (I hate using that word because its not strong by any means) means the world suddenly has found a solution to lack of energy, and lack of food. Got it.

From everything I'm reading about the early planting season we are going to have a major corn crisis by the fall...
and 30% of that short corn crop is STILL going to ethanol.

I had some idealic thoughts that maybe ethanol subsidies would go but I listened to Charlie Grassie (Sp?) Iowa Senator last night and I see the reality. It's not going away. People can die for all they care.

The difficulties with market analysis; looking at ...

2008-04-30T12:23:00.000-04:00

The difficulties with market analysis; looking at a weekly chart of OIH would suggest that the recent weakness is just a pull back to support following a breakout. Now when I look at a monthly chart I see prices at the upper end of a channel line.

Sorry I cannot be of more help, but it sounds like this sector chart is in agreement with the ambivalence in other comments

ATW is next on my list...

2008-04-30T12:11:00.000-04:00

ATW is next on my list...

I wouldn't call it panicJust the computer programs...

2008-04-30T12:10:00.000-04:00

I wouldn't call it panic

Just the computer programs that run the Street all going from one house to another - it is almost funny when you sit back and analyze how simplistic and 'programmed' everything is.

Algortithim A - if Fed does X, then this means M, which means we must do Z

Algorithim B - if Fed does Y, then this means N, which means we must do H.

No thinking. Just computer programs moving hundreds of billions in concert. And hundreds of thousands of retail investors asking "why is this happening, it makes no sense!"

I added a touch of RIG, and on the verge of adding...

2008-04-30T11:58:00.000-04:00

I added a touch of RIG, and on the verge of adding a bit of ATW. Again, adding SLOWLY as well. These names have come off to their 50 day EMA, but with oil at what I viewed as the upside target from its recent breakouts, and with it looking like it could roll over, I agree, that a panic could just set in, and I find these positions underwater significantly, by this time next week.