Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Bookkeeping: 'Rising Tide' Performance Year 2, Wee...

gains are much tougher to come by now - I agree. ...

2008-08-16T17:26:00.000-04:00

gains are much tougher to come by now - I agree. 2 months might seem like an eternity but its not really that long so I'm not ready to say "its time to buy the US economic sensitive stocks" just because they are up for 7 weeks. They've done this before in both Sep/Oct 07 and Apr/May 08 before being trounced within 30-45 days. Let's see they continue a trend for 6 months before we call it "real"

For now it appears it is better to buy on the downtick and sell into resistance. The only issue is catching the downtick at appropriate time. Aside from healthcare (which also is ahead of itself most likely) we probably have no great trend - I see a lot of value in China but the stocks are trading for miniscule values on great growth and hence that tells me institutions are not that interested. This coming from someone who was bearish on China in the fall as it ramped up to crazy heights.

There is secular growth, solar is another example - it doesnt need oil at $120 as it competes with coal/nat gas actually but its been unrewarded for many months. We'll see how it goes - always a challenge. Might just have to be like a boxer and stick and jab in the growth sectors - buy when beaten, but get out within 3-4 weeks knowing they will be sold off, while maintaining short exposure elsewhere and relatively high cash. This is different then riding growth sectors up on trend as trends are shortened now.

We'll try to adjust as we go. Honestly a 30% down market would be ok because we'll outperform 99% of funds out there in that environment just by the nature of the type of things we hold and having short exposure ;) But only ok on a "relative basis" not an absolute basis.

Well definitely, i would like to hear what is your...

2008-08-16T17:02:00.000-04:00

Well definitely, i would like to hear what is your trading plan for the next 6-12 months, you know it's going to be tough, look at what you do with aapl, rimm or the commodity stocks, it's very hard to play the bounce, and lately, you have been gun shy on your call. beside that, holding 60 position is going to be tough, playing the bounce, it's a guarantee losing proposition, may be less position, more %, and which sector benefit from a long term down trend of commodity in general.

Thanks ;)I should outperform my peer group handily...

2008-08-16T16:43:00.000-04:00

Thanks ;)
I should outperform my peer group handily if your prediction is accurate since I at least carry ETF shorts while most funds are 100% long with 0-2% cash. So I have that going for me, eh?

Hello Mark,Well, it year 2, congratulation for sur...

2008-08-16T16:41:00.000-04:00

Hello Mark,

Well, it year 2, congratulation for survive this market thus far. The only thing i see now is you have no theme compare with last year. So it going to be tough for you. Last year, it was long commodity, short the market. Now what??? You don't buy airline, auto, bank, bottom fishing which i think only work short term. May i offer a new theme: both market and commodity go down, it just a matter of which one go down more and the timing between the two. Of course we still see the sea saw, but i don't see the benefit in holding long term stock here: any stock. To me, the biggest benefit will be to alternate short commodity and short stock. You look at all those commodity stock from Mos to Pot, so on and so on, they are all great short. Of course they will bounce but only to establish lower high and lower low. As a fund manager, it's going to be tough since you can't short in a downward market, but anybody follow Mark will have their head chop off. My prediction, by this time next year, your fund will be down, but at least down less then sp500. I am not mocking you, i am just present the fact that your hand are tied without the ability to short.

Mark you should have window dressed the end of yea...

2008-08-15T19:29:00.000-04:00

Mark you should have window dressed the end of year 1...you know buy the hot stuff of July.

people will think you're dumb holding MOS/POT/ANR/APWR/SKF with all that profit expsosure...come on, the kool kids own stocks that bleed money..cash is "out", write-downs are "in" (dilution is hot too)

you should have widow dressed/bought the hot stuff before year 1 ended...UYG, DAL, C, KSS, you know you need more exposure to booming USA or you will be in the bottom 10% permanently ;)

;) LOL so facetious but true....this market is pathetic. I would normally think it would stop soon but then we wont see a good market around election time.

You know...I'd be pressing shorts now but i cant see us going down because then we wont go up in time for the election...did you ever think about like the timing and the election?? (you mentioned it once briefly)

well since
market change= -(oil price change)

if ur right about oil bottoming week before election then we may drift up until october and then drop off right after mccain is elected. Sorry for the long post but i just have this timing issue i cannot reason out, and its keeping me from shorting immediately on this stumbling market (bearish)