Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Foreclosure Filings Up 55% Year over Year

People were asking me in October 07 where the "rec...

2008-08-14T13:56:00.000-04:00

People were asking me in October 07 where the "recession" was as the market ran to all time highs, and why I was so negative when the stock market was so clearly disagreeing with me.

People seem to have this theory that the market is all knowing and can predict the future and is discounting 6 months ahead. That might of been true 20 years ago but now its a new era. The market was horribly wrong in October 2007. Hence if you try to find "truth" in stock price action you will be miserably disappointed.

If logic was the key to success, the great investors would be dominated by statisticians and math majors. Maybe we are moving to that since algrorithims programmed by these guys now have so much sway but thats not been the type of person who has dominated the market for the past 50 years.

Also, please never take 1 day of action to mean anything. Stock prices are completely random. We had bad inflation, housing, and economic news today and we're up. Correlation? None. Kool Aid level? In the red zone.

I'm not trying to dissuade you from trying to figure things out but a lot of investors try to find connections where there are none. Especially in the shorter term. And the market is many times wrong ... i.e. Was Cisco worth 200x earnings in 2000? Not so much. But the market said it was.

tradermark... You are correct. My personality like...

2008-08-14T13:26:00.000-04:00

tradermark... You are correct. My personality likes to know why things happen. As a result, I have begun to ignore fundamentals and focus on market action. IF a stock looks like it's set to move, I buy it with a stop. Still... I like to have a reason why I think there is support for a purchase anyway..

By the way, you seem to be correct about CGMFX.. Yesterday, all the top 10 holdings posted a good 5% hike and the fund tanked... Not much, but some... Think it's time to email CGM and get some feeling for what tack they are taking.

jegan ;-)

You guys are trying to find explanations where the...

2008-08-14T12:04:00.000-04:00

You guys are trying to find explanations where there are none. Reference the past 2 months.

Look at inflation reports. People shrug it off and say look to the future - inflation is in the past - the worst is behind us. Forward looking everything will be fine. This "thesis" can be applied to everything if you want to believe it,

Mall rates suck? So what - thats the PAST - look forward to the coming recovery - malls will be booming - so will office space. Hence buy REITs

Again, it PERCEPTION is reality guys. It does not matter what reality is in the stock market. Only the perception of. The market was at ALL time highs in Oct 2007 on the PERCEPTION everything was ok. THat was proven to be incorrect, but that did not mean those of us in SKF and SRS did not get killed (I sure did) back then.

We go through these periods of hope - until an avalanche of evidence crushes hope - the stocks rally. Because humans are a hopeful sort and they can always shrug off evidence and point to that illusory "6 months from now" everything will be ok - they did that all through April and May (remember "2nd half 2008" recovery) That was a hoax. We see that now, but that did not stop the market from bouncing for 2 months.

They will "create" a thesis to fit the buying pattern.

Money flow is all that matters in this market. Simple as that. Evidence and facts are not useful because they can be overridden by hope. Until evidence and facts are so overwhelming that Kool Aid punch bowl must be thrown away from a while. And thats when the market craters.

It's all about timing.

Kinda referring back to your prior article about t...

2008-08-14T11:54:00.000-04:00

Kinda referring back to your prior article about the illogical whipsaw activity in the markets... With all the negative news about real-estate, **please** explain why SRS is down day after day!!??!!

I was doing OK buying SRS and SKF on the bad news until one day when I got hammered for no real reason. Since then, I've begun to buy either on a 60 minute +DMI crossover of -DMI and exit on the other end. I was going to just set it up (for automatic trading - If you can't beat 'em, join 'em!) but I'm having a lot of problems with TDAmeritrade's StrategyDesk.. Not sure how, but I got bought and sold out of Costco yesterday about 10 times... Hmmmm ..

jegan ;-)

When is commerical gonna follow (SRS)? Crazy. I ...

2008-08-14T10:01:00.000-04:00

When is commerical gonna follow (SRS)? Crazy. I usually avoid malls but when I go I see store closing and really HIGH prices that mostly teens are buying, prob with CC's.