tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post9020699976866076148..comments2008-09-29T17:14:54.919-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-7634467847861146642008-09-29T17:14:00.000-04:002008-09-29T17:14:00.000-04:00Seems like Heebner is calling for exactly opposite of what you are:<BR/><BR/><BR/>http://www.kiplinger.com//columns/fundwatch/archive/2008/fundwatch0922.htmWillyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10880069777522410783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-66808640029778086212008-09-29T14:42:00.000-04:002008-09-29T14:42:00.000-04:00*JRCC is not really a met coal play*<BR/><BR/>The latest on thermal coal is not very encouraging either:<BR/><BR/>http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-09/28/content_7067528.htmshaxmatisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07220757563758396222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-2474255306199426872008-09-29T14:37:00.000-04:002008-09-29T14:37:00.000-04:00JRCC is not really a met coal play<BR/><BR/>as for buying anything, the market is not discriminatory - buy anything and judging from my watch lists - you can be down 10-20% in a jiffy.<BR/><BR/>I cannot believe the lowest short exposure in 7 months was "the day". <BR/><BR/>Life!TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-89087025342846927102008-09-29T14:22:00.000-04:002008-09-29T14:22:00.000-04:00*JRCC up to a 3.9% stake<BR/>MOS up to a 3.6% stake<BR/>POT up to a 2.0% stake*<BR/><BR/>Brave my friend, very brave... <BR/>I will not be coming back to met coal for a while, due to the slowdown of steel consumption in China, but Mosaic is interesting...shaxmatisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07220757563758396222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-74909146924652302572008-09-29T14:03:00.000-04:002008-09-29T14:03:00.000-04:00Great question<BR/><BR/>It is hard to paint a scenario that has never happened before.<BR/><BR/>There are lock limits so the market has triggers where it shuts down (not sure what they are anymore since it has not happened in so long) but I think maybe 10% down the market stops for a period. And then it if goes lower they shut it down for the day.<BR/><BR/>Without credit the world is in big trouble. Hence the need to get credit flowing is the big issue. Just the past few weeks of lack of credit is going to be talked about in many of the earnings reports coming down the pike and the lack of visibility (even if credit calms down) is going to cause major consternation because now people can see it can 'go away' in the blink of an eye.<BR/><BR/>Without confidence you have nothing - the banking system is all confidence. If at any 1 time people want their money back in a levered system, well there is not enough money for everyone. The US has the most levered financial system (by a magnitude of two) versus any other country.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-355181185935520562008-09-29T13:48:00.000-04:002008-09-29T13:48:00.000-04:00what in your vision would it look like if the markets "tank". i have thought about that scenario (obviously) but don't even know what that could mean? the stock market shutting down, freezing, no trading, or equities going down to virtually no value? <BR/>Please enlighten me ;)NL Thinkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06957695945576675327noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-79366907697247305132008-09-29T13:46:00.000-04:002008-09-29T13:46:00.000-04:00forgot to add<BR/><BR/>these are still smaller stakes than I used to hold top positions. In the old days I would put 6-7% into my top positions. Now 3-4% is considered a top heavy position. So it's all relative.<BR/><BR/>I think cash is down to about 43% right now. Market drops another 5% tomorrow I'll put another 5-7% to work, and keep working it until the market drops 90%.<BR/><BR/>;)TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-38433072080717919852008-09-29T13:43:00.000-04:002008-09-29T13:43:00.000-04:00"Don't you feel you should be much more defensive that you are? "<BR/><BR/>I believe if you ranked all equity mutual funds by highest % cash to lowest.... I'd be in the top 3? 2? 1?<BR/><BR/>I've been running nearly 50% cash here of late. Not sure how that is not defensive.<BR/><BR/>You are thinking like an independent trader. So you have to switch mindsets<BR/><BR/>In mutual fund world, 5% cash is considered a defensive stake.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-33217178885689150352008-09-29T13:34:00.000-04:002008-09-29T13:34:00.000-04:00I believe that you will be a hero ( buying at the perceived low) or a goat (if the market tanks). My opinion is you are taking a BIG risk by buying equities at this moment. This bailout is very risky and is not the answer, not even close. Don't you feel you should be much more defensive that you are? <BR/><BR/>Fertilizer prices are headed down, both UREA and DAP are weaker.<BR/><BR/>http://www.fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/archives/pdf/2008/TheMarket-092608.pdfyayankeehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08500359981802753931noreply@blogger.com