tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post8828485213179380483..comments2008-11-12T22:20:05.190-05:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-87861287166582662852008-11-12T22:20:00.000-05:002008-11-12T22:20:00.000-05:00short uym that is... smn longrosesryellow2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12471278009523940698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-70478656607442238682008-11-12T19:03:00.000-05:002008-11-12T19:03:00.000-05:00Regarding Inflating the Dollar... it will happen... first deflation... then down the road substantial inflation in my opinion. How can any Chinese stimulus plan replace the enormous buying power of the West overnight? One thing that would inflate the dollar more quickly would be a shift away from the Dollar as the world currency. It will happen. Arabic states are already setting up a new currency for oil... still this will take time in my opinion.rosesryellow2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12471278009523940698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-7230793771458627502008-11-12T18:29:00.000-05:002008-11-12T18:29:00.000-05:00Mark,<BR/><BR/>I have been super busy and haven't posted on my site in quite a while as a result but this does not mean I have stopped learning about the makets.<BR/><BR/>I have been so bearish that my feeling was that I just couldn't add more short exposure... usually when I am this bearish or bullish the market is ready to go the other way. <BR/><BR/>But this market really is different. 25 years of credit expansion with a ridiculous mania during the last few years. No amount of stimulus can inflate this thing because we are talking about trillions of dollars of credit inflation over years and years... it's like trying to climb Mount Everest with a really tall ladder. It's just ridiculous. <BR/><BR/>Deflation, drops in ALL asset classes including commodities, an increasingly stronger dollar and Japanese Yen (the Yen Carry Trade unwind). In most cases when oil goes down stocks go up... but that is inflation... and this is massive deflation. <BR/><BR/>I love your heavy short exposure. I have FXP but EEV , UYM, SRS especially which I have been in at times, others are great as well. There will be a rally at some point but the important point is that just because we are down 40% on the Dow doesn't mean it's too late to go short... we could easily break new lows<BR/><BR/>Prechter thinks most probably this Bear market will end betweein 2014 and 2016.<BR/><BR/>That's a scary thought but Elliott Wave theory is the most scientific and accurate probability based market forecast I have ever seen.rosesryellow2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12471278009523940698noreply@blogger.com