tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post8796998227216195391..comments2008-10-21T19:15:28.471-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-35309798125006789422008-10-20T16:32:00.000-04:002008-10-20T16:32:00.000-04:00Yes I agree on the V<BR/><BR/>I think their official number might never show reality - maybe "7%" at trough<BR/>but in reality it might be a 2-4%<BR/><BR/>either way, we'd be mouth watering over that<BR/><BR/>It will be important to follow companies with large multi national industrial arms to hear what is "really" happening in those countries.<BR/><BR/>I think by early 2010 the globe will be recovering (ex-US) and we'll start to see that in the stocks next summer.<BR/><BR/>I'll be very interested in how the dollar is doing by then - you could have a twin propellent for multinationals if dollar starts to falter again (which it should but I guess its still considered the safety currency)<BR/><BR/>What is interesting is usually on a rebound of the market, the former leaders do NOT repeat as the future leaders. I think everyone believes this and hence why they were jumping on retail, and even financials this summer. But this could be a case where the former leaders retake their spot after a 1 year hiatus<BR/><BR/>July 1, 2008 - July 1, 2009? ;)TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-50642060278082580082008-10-20T15:35:00.000-04:002008-10-20T15:35:00.000-04:00I think that 9% GDP is going to drop like a rock, but its going to be the industrials (with BRIC exposure) that lead it back. So China gets the V recovery, and the US gets an L/Risk Manager Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14994763012317049832noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-23047507663987382692008-10-20T15:05:00.000-04:002008-10-20T15:05:00.000-04:00I still think its too early but that 9% Chinese GDP number I guess could mute some fears but who knows its accuracy. Eaton said today sales are dropping fast in BRIC countries so I'd rather listen to facts like that than any govt report.<BR/><BR/>But you know my theory - the ROW will lead America back, not vice versa - hence summer 2009 I'd expect to see a lot of former favorites to find their footing again.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-77679681188817792162008-10-20T14:24:00.000-04:002008-10-20T14:24:00.000-04:00Mark, I dont think the market is "looking through the valley" this time in the US. But it is doing so, in the ROW.Risk Manager Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14994763012317049832noreply@blogger.com