tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post8783990358001567697..comments2008-07-02T11:04:21.491-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-20626910484825807762008-07-02T11:04:00.000-04:002008-07-02T11:04:00.000-04:00Nomar, no<BR/><BR/>I believe the Federal Reserve will provide backstop to the big banks but let some of the regionals fail so I am not that interested in them. Although they will all bounce together.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-45349452541252183562008-07-01T21:51:00.000-04:002008-07-01T21:51:00.000-04:00U ever think of the regional bank iShares ETF (IAT)? I got burned playing the marked w/QID in March but also bought UYG before the bell today. Let's hope for 10% popnomar5better2http://openid.aol.com/nomar5better2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-28065148822621221072008-07-01T17:20:00.000-04:002008-07-01T17:20:00.000-04:00Hi,<BR/><BR/>Don't know how long you were in the market but I think financials are where technology was in late 2000/early 2001. You will get large oversold bounces along the way, but its going to be years of issues. And many will never get to old highs. But that does not mean you can make money on the long side in the interim. It will just have to be in smaller time frames and/or you have to be extremely selective.<BR/><BR/>All these times the banks raise capital that is a fancy way to say "we are selling a ton of shares to dilute our current shareholders"<BR/><BR/>Therefore their earnings PER share will be suffering for ages. So even if they could make the same amount of money as they used to, its spread over many more shares. And we're nowhere near the time they will make the same amount of money as they used to. Right now we are working through the credit crisis - there is almost nothing really discussed in terms of recession and faltering consumer loans (ex mortgages).<BR/><BR/>So I believe it will be many years in fact - but the winners will take market share (Goldman is already doing it on the investment banking side) and JPM is one of the best of the bunch in the money center side.<BR/><BR/>For me, this is a trade to try to squeeze some return out - I'll be back to SKF (the short) in due time. Probably building the position up when we begin the drumbeat of "1st half 2009" recovery :)TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-14832259999560553752008-07-01T17:14:00.000-04:002008-07-01T17:14:00.000-04:00Are you betting on a financial recovery or just a short term trade on this. What do you think of JPM? I had it for a while and sold it yesterday.Peddahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11963642705157028940noreply@blogger.com