tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post8468217519427706704..comments2008-07-29T14:19:49.960-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-62695343257979194252008-07-29T14:19:00.000-04:002008-07-29T14:19:00.000-04:00Q,<BR/><BR/>you are correct<BR/>this has been a slowly building situation for the past decade really<BR/><BR/>you werent around in the winter but if you search the blog for "rice" or "wheat" (when it spiked last year) you will see a lot of talk about the food shortages.<BR/><BR/>Obviously the global food chain is stretched and a series of bad weather shocks can cause major issues. For grains the main thing is good weather in the US and Russia and former satellite states where much of the production is - Australia has been suffering for a few years.<BR/><BR/>The big clash over the next half decade will be biofuels versus fuel - we had our first flare up this winter. I expect increasingly larger flare ups.<BR/><BR/>I'd also encourage you to search for "Haiti" to see what some of the world's poor are going through while we put food into our SUVsTraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-57002528271617143442008-07-29T13:44:00.000-04:002008-07-29T13:44:00.000-04:00Thanks * Understood *<BR/><BR/><BR/>but could you comment on what I noted in the slides of the conference call presentation and you noted as well about the 4.4 million tonnes of grain stocks being measly. What does that mean? <BR/><BR/>I took it as a positive in the sense that more production is needed to feed the world, the food stocks are low etc.Qhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14433765635925628922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-91763042559441555492008-07-29T13:12:00.000-04:002008-07-29T13:12:00.000-04:00Hi Q<BR/><BR/>one quarter its "China will never pay over $450" the next quarter its "natural gas input costs along with sulfur is too high" the next quarter its "this" and the next it will be "that"<BR/><BR/>These guys are sold out thats really all it boils down to. They are on allocation to their customers. Meaning customers cannot get what they want.<BR/><BR/>In my world view as many more millions enter middle class we are going to have intermittent shortages for years upon years upon decade. Any 1 season wheat or soybeans or whatnot could go up or down. The trend is to food shortages as people move to cities, away from self sufficiency (farming/fishing), and reliant on the global food chain to feed them. Also as they acquire wealth.<BR/><BR/>What that means for corn prices the next month, or wheat the next 6 months, or soybeans in 12 months is not really part of my thesis. The stocks will sell off when fast money wants out - they will create the "reason" they want.<BR/><BR/>Same with oil.<BR/>Same with anything.<BR/><BR/>I think any investor who buys anything thinking its an easy road will be surprised. I know you don't think that but any good story has periods of rockiness. And no growth story lasts forever. I am bullish for a number of years - no real supply comes online until 2011-2012. The stocks wont go up 300% each year, its just impossible - they would be the 2 largest companies in the world. Buy on dips, sell on rips - keep repeating.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-90432851295024064092008-07-29T12:48:00.000-04:002008-07-29T12:48:00.000-04:00Mark,<BR/><BR/>When they talk about declining food stocks is that a negative (I am thinking) for POT and MOS or that more fertilizer has to be put down to increase grain and seed production. The market is taking this negatively. <BR/><BR/>I also noticed that the price of Soybeans and Corn are down in the last couple of months and this along with the politics of ethanol subsides maybe causing problems for these stocks in the near term.<BR/><BR/>Long POT and MOS<BR/><BR/><BR/>PS: the coals and steels finally responded today lets see if it will last.Qhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14433765635925628922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-91588046470104322482008-07-29T10:13:00.000-04:002008-07-29T10:13:00.000-04:00you need to make that decision for yourself.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-66737363694554118812008-07-29T09:30:00.000-04:002008-07-29T09:30:00.000-04:00Meant to say is POT better than MOS because they can supply more potashslimanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02885545198067762872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-87116200083790550622008-07-29T09:22:00.000-04:002008-07-29T09:22:00.000-04:00No targets for near term<BR/>Only targets for the long term<BR/><BR/>The market can take these +30% or -30% in the next month for all I know.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-17227119641399651002008-07-29T08:31:00.000-04:002008-07-29T08:31:00.000-04:00mark, at what prices for mos, pot and cf could you not resist adding to your position on these names if they were to fall to that level, reasonably, would it be at their 200 MDA or lowerGreghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08278191046264027245noreply@blogger.com