tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post8375476995265677028..comments2008-06-12T17:01:09.659-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-3765794892492395742008-06-12T17:01:00.000-04:002008-06-12T17:01:00.000-04:00As I've been typing the past month; commodities are due to correct<BR/><BR/>metals look like they are going first, see RIO for another example<BR/><BR/>coal, fertilizer and nat gas will probably be the last to go<BR/><BR/>If you are new to these groups I strongly urge you to review January and March performance. many of these names can correct 30% in the span of 2 weeks. Nothing can go straight up. AFter something increases 50-70% you should expect a material pullback at some point.<BR/><BR/>This is why I am not piling into that name or really any commodities after what I consider mild pullbacks.<BR/><BR/>When people start cursing fertilizer or coal and declaring commodities are dead because the strong dollar is here - thats when you want to be adding in larger scale. So its just a sector rotation in my book... nothing MTL or RIO or any other name specific.<BR/><BR/>Look at DRYS for a great example as well. They carry a lot of the stuff that I think is about to get "corrected"TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-31721452271952649802008-06-12T16:21:00.000-04:002008-06-12T16:21:00.000-04:00Any thoughts on why MTL is falling?MiMihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00612272222362424442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-66771043821228036142008-06-12T15:39:00.000-04:002008-06-12T15:39:00.000-04:00re: Apple<BR/><BR/>Me two. Could even do low to mid $150s. Depending on how bad the market is. But low $160s seems "in the bag".TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-57944160201538868902008-06-12T14:09:00.000-04:002008-06-12T14:09:00.000-04:00yea AAPL so far has held the 50day but its really not looking too great, all signals rolling over in that name. i expect downside to about 162 if it breaks the 50day.j. / marketfollyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07691612544809256786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-10065870707644413632008-06-12T12:37:00.000-04:002008-06-12T12:37:00.000-04:00I use exponential usually so low 170s, but its getting closer. Probably won't add in scale until lower. If this selloff plays out - as it almost to the textbook has - we probably bottom in financials next week on MS/GS earnings - then rally hard in those areas along with homebuilders retailers, while the rest of market suffers. Especially commodities<BR/><BR/>We shall see, its been almost too perfect so far. Everything sell off, commodities hold up, now this reversal. This looks more like plain short covering - need to see something more sustained to get too excited.<BR/><BR/>You guys are always in a rush to buy ;) remind me of myself about 3-5 years ago. If Apple reverses and goes you can always jump in and pay up a bit... no big hurry on this side. If I miss Apple there are many other trains leaving the station each day/week/month.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-904953207071032072008-06-12T12:33:00.000-04:002008-06-12T12:33:00.000-04:00Guy, it starts getting so predictable doesn't it?<BR/><BR/>Now tomorrow if its a good CPI number "better than expected" all the evidence to the contrary is thrown to the window, all the Fed governors FINALLY admitting inflation is a threat is dismissed and the 5000 pt rally begins? :)<BR/>Lemmings.<BR/><BR/>hrs,<BR/>some talk of Abu Dhabi buying Chrysler building this morning in NYC<BR/><BR/>Much like the 80s when Japan bought many assets this will now repeat - only this time we are much more broke as a nation and the type of money China (from trade) and the Middle East/Russia (from petrol) is making is many times what Japan ever had. <BR/><BR/>We will slowly but surely waste away our assets to keep consuming over our head.<BR/><BR/>Reverse colonization I grabbed from another website - love the term.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-52496615871874328042008-06-12T12:31:00.000-04:002008-06-12T12:31:00.000-04:00TM,<BR/>AAPL touched 50ma. Are you waiting to add on further pullback.(mid 160s)?praveenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13667970151880837018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-55395062434688339172008-06-12T12:27:00.000-04:002008-06-12T12:27:00.000-04:00three comments<BR/><BR/>1) France is interviening to retain French ownership in a shipyard operation [nationalism, protectionism]<BR/><BR/>2) international coal prices are forecasted to go up [affecting steel making]<BR/><BR/>3) rationing of electricity to ore miners [coal, alumina, iron, uranium, etal] in So. Africa<BR/><BR/>all things related to cost of imported and manufactured goods and barriers to international trade <BR/><BR/>[and the US policy makers are banking on international trade, exports, to maintain domestic economic activity?] <BR/><BR/>- more koolaid pleasehrs0944http://www.blogger.com/profile/09986838112144909482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-16769332191799442342008-06-12T12:14:00.000-04:002008-06-12T12:14:00.000-04:00TM: Your comments about the monthly numbers and in particular, the retail sales numbers, reminds me of how a buddy of mine describes the cycle of prices on Wall Street: it's "rinse, lather, repeat".Guyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.com