Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Looks Like It's Going to be a Rough Week

that same market pundit, it its who i think it is ...

2008-03-19T15:02:00.000-04:00

that same market pundit, it its who i think it is told people to keep their money at bear just last week.

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20080317110946.aspx

oh no.. i have no delusions that it could even be...

2008-03-19T13:05:00.000-04:00

oh no.. i have no delusions that it could even be thought of as "easy". I'm with you, in that I dont think I'd be able to time it. I have a day job to boot! But everytime, this happens... I'm left to wonder if there was a way to mitigate this risk. Or at least, smooth out the transition. I'm just trying to figure out a strategy. Perhaps, you can avoid the 'industry' of the sector involved in the crash, and play the other parts of the early cycle stocks. So by not cutting the ultrashorts, add bits back to it. I this past example, add retailers. But ultimately, the time may be better spent, just trying to look for better stocks. there's a level if stylish simplicity in just keeping it simple...

If you can time that more power to youA week ago t...

2008-03-19T12:38:00.000-04:00

If you can time that more power to you

A week ago the indexes had its best day in 5 years and people were plugging into those early cycles. By Monday Bear Stearns was "bankrupt" and if not for Fed actions Sunday night the market would of fallen off a cliff IMO. So its easy to say in retrospect but in real time, trying to time things in a market where the mood changes by the day, if not the hour is difficult. Personally I am just sticking with themes that will bear out in the long run and raise/lower exposure as things get too happy or too worried. I am not good enough to market time the change in mood of the market to the degree you are mentioning. If I was 1 week early on those early cycle ETFs I'd be down a ton, and the recent gains would of just gotten me back to "maybe" break even. Maybe. Timing is central to the strategy you convey and my crystal ball is not that good.

For future reference on the next 'crash' scenario,...

2008-03-19T12:00:00.000-04:00

For future reference on the next 'crash' scenario, it may be worth while, instead of cutting ultrashorts to reduce them by adding 'playbook' ETFS. I've never actually considered it before, but having seen what happeneds this round, Jan, and last aug; perhaps its not too bad of an idea. Again, this feels alot like Jan, all over again. Even the bounce.

Absolutely - the herd all followed in 1 direction....

2008-03-19T11:19:00.000-04:00

Absolutely - the herd all followed in 1 direction. Unfortunately (for them) the herd got crushed within weeks of their "early cycle" call. All that buying was predicated on (a) the worst is over in financials and (b) 2nd half recovery. Other than short term traders, the vast majority who are trained to buy those early cycles as all recent "recessions" are short and sweet, were way too early and lost a lot of money.

While I believe Q3 GDP might pop due to the rebate checks, and draw in a lot of suckers - unless home prices stabilize I'm moving to a camp of a double dip fall. Rise in 2nd half 2008 and then the next leg down in 2009. Should make for an interesting market either way.

While the nameless market pundit gets alot of thin...

2008-03-19T11:03:00.000-04:00

While the nameless market pundit gets alot of things wrong, he was right, that alot of fund managers are just running 'the play book'.