Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Bookkeeping: Cutting Back the Strongest Tech

Of course. I used to only rely on Cramer because ...

2008-07-08T21:27:00.000-04:00

Of course. I used to only rely on Cramer because i was inexperienced and this last year has shown me how wrong he is a lot. But I respect him and never insult him because he is a great person, with the guts to speak his mind to help people (ie: expose ethanol nonsense, try to get fed to cut to stabilize home prices- even though the weakened dollar is hurting them more) but he is rather right now, with NAT GAS, and he's like the only one on it.

He justs makes himself look like a fool because his show is mad money and its a bear market...and you don't get ratings by saying sell everything except oil/gas/coal/steel/AG

he tries to recommend other stuff and its useless. And then when the momo's correct he looks even dumber.

I am amazed at how much he chases performance though. He says MOS was too wild yesterday and dangerous shorter term with volatile market....well why the heck is it risky when its down 35 straight points, the risk is taken out. things like that make me disappointed because I know he has more potential than that.

BTW- Did you ever read confession of a street addict? I am now, its really good, it shows his true genius as a teenager and early career.

Maybe someday you'll have a show, "Kool Aid" after the rising tide compunds 24.1% annually over 16 years (0.1% more than cramer and 2 years longer than him)

Bill, he was saying get back in 2 weeks ago becaus...

2008-07-08T19:52:00.000-04:00

Bill, he was saying get back in 2 weeks ago because the "magic oscillator" was -5 and it never lies. Just like Kass told you to get into financials at just about the peak 5-6 weeks ago and you came to the message board boldly proclaiming Kass says to get into financials. That would of destroyed about 50% of your capital.

My only point is even the best get it wrong half the time. The hero worship by people is what gets me, for anyone. Even Heebner. Heebner has 4 funds, 3 are doing "well", but I'm beating those 3 over the past year. The other is spectacular and getting all the attention. He deserves to be listened to, so does Cramer, so does Kass. But the "well he says so, so it must be" is rose colored at best and dangerous at worst. I am not pointing at you, but saying it in a general sense. I follow 200 stocks or so, and don't even have enough waking hours to do to that. To say Cramer or any 1 human can follow 3000+ stocks or whatever he claims and really know what is going on is just plain silly. But he needs a byline.

p.s. Fast Money has been replaced by Suze Orman at 8 PM repeat. I wonder if ratings are starting to die in this very tough market. Mad Money is not quite so fun when stocks fall 4 out of every 6 weeks. He started the show in a "relative bull" - I'll be curious if we have 12-18 more months of this action if his show will still be around.

Again I have no problem with any person - it is more the lemmings reactions to said person. People who don't trust their own work cling to others as confirmation of what they believe. And both could be wrong. Or right. That's all I'm saying. The key is to cut losses quickly and let winners run. People are too focused on the winners and not preserving capital on the losers... as I like to say when all you are asking is "how much can I make" you are thinking like a newer investor. When you ask "how much can I lose" you are probably whose been around a long time.

Just my opinion.

I think cramer makes himself look like an idiot wi...

2008-07-08T19:39:00.000-04:00

I think cramer makes himself look like an idiot with his 5 bottom calls in financials and such...but I have to respect him for his performance and DISCIPLINE.

now with the AA plus portfolio....does anyone know the 5 year past performance, I was always curious. I have realmoney subscription not AA though.

Remember he cannot trade everything he want, he is restricted. Otherwise he'd bought POT at 150 and AAPL at 80 like he says in his latest book and says online in questions.

Ever since he got rid of CITI in the 20s everything has been pretty good for his picks...I think his only blunder is DE, but he only entered initially in the 70s so its not that bad.

I mean he's cleaning up on the NAT gas and takes profits and buys on dips...he has 4 nat gas stocks last week not he has 1...that's good discipline.

lol GuyI didn't mean the "staged" I'm sorry. You ...

2008-07-07T15:50:00.000-04:00

lol Guy

I didn't mean the "staged" I'm sorry. You know like when a gold medalist sprinter denies she took any performance enhancing drugs but then WHEN caught "she is sorry". People only say sorry when they are caught - right Mr Spitzer? Etc etc.

My favorite is when a reporter asked G.W.B. about 2 years ago if he could think of any mistakes he had in his first 5 years in office. Couldn't think of one. Another perfect human :)

I will let you know if it is the bottom in about 6...

2008-07-07T15:47:00.000-04:00

I will let you know if it is the bottom in about 6 weeks or so.

People say they are wrong a lot these days; usually they messed up horribly and do it publicly and then get all teary eyed on the podium in front of America. It's good for you.

Guy, it is always easier to be a strategist and pu...

2008-07-07T15:34:00.000-04:00

Guy, it is always easier to be a strategist and pundit than actually running money. If you look at Cramers Action Alerts it is quite poor actually. I can't speak to the hedge fund - it sounds like it did very well but how much was him and how much was his partner - (usually the guy out of the limelight is doing a lot of the work) - or it seems his wife saved his bacon multiple times lol. Anyhow it is funny - you can indeed always find a chart to explain bullishness but why no one is allowed to say "I'm wrong" must be a national obsession. No one in finance is saying it, no one in politics say it. I'm wrong about half the time here, but hopefully the right outweighs the wrong.

Hey the market is making YET another reversal and maybe we close above 1260 again! What a "miracle". Or maybe its the "Guy" bottom. I'm not biting this time - it's getting tiresome. We just did this song and dance last Tuesday.

oa - that's sector rotation.Guy, I have no idea ho...

2008-07-07T15:21:00.000-04:00

oa - that's sector rotation.

Guy, I have no idea how 'bad' this is, from a historical standpoint. I'm actually a relative newbie to investing, but I totally agree about the "how" to trade/invest.

"The best medicine is to have a plan, diversify, and allocate according to risk."

If people viewed their accounts for what they were, that is, a portfolio, then it shouldnt be a question of, "I'm buying, so you should buy too", but instead, "my target allocation based on risk:reward is X, so I'm moving towards X." I think that gets alot of Mark's readers a bit confused when he does things, counter to his long term thesis.

The semi (brcm, mrvl...)is doing very well today. ...

2008-07-07T15:16:00.000-04:00

The semi (brcm, mrvl...)is doing very well today. how do you explain that??

Remember what I said months ago about the Cramers ...

2008-07-07T15:14:00.000-04:00

Remember what I said months ago about the Cramers and legions of bullish talking heads: when prices hit the lower bollinger band on the daily charts, they say, "buy the market it is oversold." If that doesn't work out, they always have the weekly charts and if that doesn't work out, they can to the monthly charts. We are now at the monthly charts and likely failing here. So wind up the instant reply and let's go to the quarterly charts.

I wrote this about Cramer last week: "Financial Armageddon is upon us! Well, that’s if you read the pundits and those that have been telling investors to buy, buy, buy all the way down, down, down. Quoting Jim Cramer (of Mad Money fame) from New Yorker Magazine:

'In 25 years on Wall Street, I have never seen things this bad….Sell everything. Nothing’s working. Revisit when the prices are adjusted for a big recession, soaring inflation and a crushed consumer. Sell at 12,000 and come back at 10,000. Even better: short it.'

Listen, I don’t doubt nor do I discount the seriousness of 'our' financial straits. I am sure the truth is somewhere between the rosy forecast of the bulls and the grave predictions of the bears and those that have now found the ursine side. The truth is no one really knows. The best medicine is to have a plan, diversify, and allocate according to risk."

This is the most often pattern repeated by investors: buy high and sell low.

One more thing - all those people saying "oversold...

2008-07-07T14:56:00.000-04:00

One more thing - all those people saying "oversold" the past 3 weeks should also come to the forefront and say "I'm sorry"

Oversold is the most useless term I've ever seen in financial circles. Cramer says the OSCILLATOR has NEVEr failed me at -5. The market bottoms within 2 days. Well it was there 2 weeks ago and is now -9. LOL.

Oh these guys. It's "oversold"

Passionate, was looking through all the charts thi...

2008-07-07T14:54:00.000-04:00

Passionate, was looking through all the charts this weekend and saw the MA gap just about to be filled. That said it appears likely it is heading to its 200 day moving average just under $220.

Guy, if I had zero long exposure I'd be beginning to buy here as well. We are closer to the end than the beginning but as you know the last move down (or up) is at times parabolic. However since I don't have 0% long exposure that is not my gameplan. I want to have some cash and shorts (to reverse) into the thick of any systematic selloff.

I wish they'd bring back all those jokers from March, April and May back on TV now to explain their "2nd half recovery" thesis. No accountability for these folks.

The problem as I see it, is without solutions to housing, credit, and energy there is no real thesis for a sustained move up... other than hope (i.e. April/May). So we'll get those 5% maybe 10% moves up off oversold bottoms just to keep repeating I am afraid - for perhaps 2+ years.

It is a matter of style for sure and definitely wh...

2008-07-07T14:42:00.000-04:00

It is a matter of style for sure and definitely what makes a market.

My equity exposure went from 80% to zero 6 weeks ago. I was advising folks to sell rallies. Now I am telling folks to buy the big down days. But let's be clear about this: we are still in a bear market and any bounce we see from here will be limited to weeks in duration. I would rather be buying here but there are substantial/ palpable risks as this is a bear market and oversolds can become more oversold.

So I just mention this as a matter of style.

As predicted, MA closed that gap at 243ish..hangin...

2008-07-07T14:29:00.000-04:00

As predicted, MA closed that gap at 243ish..hanging in there for now.

until earnings come out and than that "thesis" is ...

2008-07-07T14:24:00.000-04:00

until earnings come out and than that "thesis" is blown to bits just like the "bottom is in financials" and "housing will reboundi in spring 2008" that was spoon fed to the public all throughout fall and early winter.

Check that, multinational tech which has 60-80% of sales overseas will do fine, IBM, HPQ, etc - creating an illusion of "awesomeness" even though 2/3rd of their "profit" will be currenct devaluation. Those guys report first, and then the "local tech" reliant on the US economy reports next. Judging from the government reports of strength in the economy they should do great too. (ahem).

The problem with being correct on a thesis is, it doesn't matter if you are correct if the market deems otherwise. As long as enough dollars chase a theory they can take stocks to wherever they wish, and until the truth is uncovered a few weeks/months/quarters later - only then does reality show.

Anyhow it is all bemusing.

its quiet here today.I swear, the market is sync-i...

2008-07-07T14:11:00.000-04:00

its quiet here today.

I swear, the market is sync-ing up on the downside, and the VIX is clearly moving up. This is a nasty game of musical chairs.

I was talking to a friend about Tech just an hour ago, trying to explain the exact same thing as you just wrote. Cant buy early cycle retailers/financials. Cant go global. Can't do anything related to commodities and oil. That leaves Tech.