tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post8244469782659356433..comments2009-03-26T18:47:11.094-04:00Marknoreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-67970595855012417002009-03-26T18:47:00.000-04:002009-03-26T18:47:00.000-04:00Mark,<BR/><BR/>Let's party in solar like it's DEC 07 ;)<BR/><BR/>check the TSL board....some folks may be excited ;)<BR/><BR/>billAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-30141756404089324812009-03-26T14:53:00.000-04:002009-03-26T14:53:00.000-04:00Hey guys, sign up with a name haha.<BR/>I can't keep Anons straight<BR/><BR/>I have a post on the degradation - they are like buying options with near term expirations in terms of time decay. All of them.<BR/><BR/>Search the archive on SKF - I think I wrote it in January or so.<BR/><BR/>I went negative on China, Emerging Mkts, Commercial Real Estate, and Financials in fall 2007. I bought all those stupid ETFs as long term hedges. The underlying indexes in all but financial fell 50% in just over a year, but I lost money on all 3 ULTRASHORT ETFs thats how bad it was.<BR/><BR/>I only made a piddling amount in SKF ... even with Financial index imploding in 1930s style<BR/><BR/>They are terrible long term hedges (at the time I could not short individual names like I was calling out - WaMu, Freddie - etc - heading to zero) so all I had was SKF.<BR/><BR/>One bad reversal day in a 2x ETF and your gains for a month are gone.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-61719886701894444452009-03-26T14:49:00.000-04:002009-03-26T14:49:00.000-04:00Mark, didn&#39;t see your comment in time... I guess I&#39;d short TNA as well then. Not with the intent of making money on market direction but banking on continued volatility in both bullish &amp; bearish directions and the &quot;degradation&quot; of the ultras. <BR/><BR/>But your right, timing has to be right, for instance, once REITs really crash, SRS may double or triple - the question is if SRS is 30 by then, then if you shorted from 110 you&#39;d still be safe, and you can be guarenteed that it will fall just like it fell from 250 to 48. But in truth, I wouldn&#39;t have the guts to hold on - i don&#39;t have the emotional fortitude<BR/><BR/>Anon 2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-14484118045657774172009-03-26T14:43:00.000-04:002009-03-26T14:43:00.000-04:00We're dealing with a different beast these days. Before 2008 we were in a time period of unprecedented directional stability. 2x/3x etfs do very poorly when thrown up and down repeatedly in short time periods. If we have rally and crash every 3 weeks these things get torn apart. The thing is if you are going to short them you'd have to blind yourself from the account so you don't get a daily heart attack.<BR/><BR/>ADifferentAnonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-18848571607636593922009-03-26T14:39:00.000-04:002009-03-26T14:39:00.000-04:00Anon 2, that is a very easy theory to say but as you can see those can move 100% the opposite direction and you can lose all your money. The danger in shorting is losses are unlimited. <BR/><BR/>TNA is opposite of SRS/SKF... if you want to short things after a rally fizzles you'd short TNA with URE and UYG, being short SRS is actually a bullish bet.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-47541665370515046182009-03-26T14:28:00.000-04:002009-03-26T14:28:00.000-04:00look at RYTNX long term, from 2003 to 2008, that was not too bad...<BR/><BR/>http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RYTNX&amp;t=my&amp;l=on&amp;z=m&amp;q=l&amp;c=Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-12781259058853315852009-03-26T14:19:00.000-04:002009-03-26T14:19:00.000-04:00So what about just waiting for TNA, SRS, and SKF to pop once this rally fizzles out and then when they double - short them and hold the short for 5 years?<BR/><BR/>ADifferentAnonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-88150146759444099712009-03-26T13:56:00.000-04:002009-03-26T13:56:00.000-04:00Anon,<BR/>all 2x, 3x ETFs will eventually be $5 or less<BR/>just by construction<BR/><BR/>you cant hold TNA for more than 2-3 days hahTraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-40561593197440959332009-03-26T13:36:00.000-04:002009-03-26T13:36:00.000-04:00einhorn is loaded on WFR too &amp; he just added it back in Dec... thing has been ripping lately.<BR/><BR/><BR/>woooohooo solar, wooohooo chinamarket follyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07691612544809256786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-10132950628325588642009-03-26T13:35:00.000-04:002009-03-26T13:35:00.000-04:00Can we just buy TNA and hold for 5 years? Should be higher right?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com